Predictions / Football / Hungary. NB I / Vasas vs Puskas Academy

Prediction Audit: Vasas vs Puskas Academy Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Vasas Vasas
Aug 22, 2026 - 13:30
0 1.25
1 1.35
xG Accuracy: 64%
Puskas Academy Puskas Academy

AI correctly predicted the Puskas Academy win.

The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Puskas Academy Puskas Academy ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Vasas higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Vasas -9.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Vasas 32.9% 42.7% -9.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 28.2% +1.4 pp Aligned
Puskas Academy 37.5% 29.1% +8.4 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Vasas's win probability at 42.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 9.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Puskas Academy win 0–1).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Vasas. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Puskas Academy higher (47.4% vs model 37.5%, 9.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Puskas Academy win 0–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 22, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Vasas 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Puskas Academy 37.6%
    • xG · Vasas 1.25 — Puskas Academy 1.35
  2. Aug 22, 2026 · 13:04 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Vasas 2.23 · Draw 3.38 · Puskas Academy 3.27
    • Implied 1X2 · Vasas 42.7% · Draw 28.2% · Puskas Academy 29.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 22, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Vasas 2.23 · Draw 3.38 · Puskas Academy 3.27
    • Implied 1X2 · Vasas 42.7% · Draw 28.2% · Puskas Academy 29.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 22, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Puskas Academy win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 17/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 01:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4223038

Closing Odds 2.23
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Puskas Academy win · Vasas 0–1 Puskas Academy
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: NB I
  • Fixture: Vasas vs Puskas Academy
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-22 13:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
  • xG (showing): Vasas 1.25 — Puskas Academy 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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NB I NB I — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Gyori ETO FC 8 4 3 1 15
2 Puskas Academy 8 5 0 3 15
3 Vasas 8 4 2 2 14
4 Ujpest 8 4 2 2 14
5 Ferencvarosi TC 7 3 3 1 12
6 Paks 8 3 2 3 11
7 MTK Budapest 8 2 3 3 9
8 Kisvarda FC 8 2 3 3 9
9 Debreceni VSC 8 2 3 3 9
10 Nyiregyhaza 8 2 2 4 8
11 Budapest Honved 7 1 3 3 6
12 Zalaegerszegi TE 8 2 0 6 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vasas 8 17 11 +6 14
2 Ujpest 8 17 13 +4 14
3 Gyori ETO FC 8 16 10 +6 15
4 Paks 8 16 17 -1 11
5 MTK Budapest 8 15 14 +1 9
6 Puskas Academy 8 13 10 +3 15
7 Debreceni VSC 8 12 15 -3 9
8 Ferencvarosi TC 7 11 8 +3 12
9 Budapest Honved 7 11 14 -3 6
10 Kisvarda FC 8 9 10 -1 9
11 Nyiregyhaza 8 9 14 -5 8
12 Zalaegerszegi TE 8 7 17 -10 6
NB I Hungary. NB I Predictions