Predictions / Football / Hungary. NB I / Puskas Academy vs Paks

Prediction Audit: Puskas Academy vs Paks Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Puskas Academy Puskas Academy
Aug 16, 2026 - 15:30
3 1.29
2 1.31
xG Accuracy: 52%
Paks Paks

The model missed the final outcome (Puskas Academy win 3–2).

The model had projected Paks at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Paks Puskas Academy ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Puskas Academy higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Puskas Academy -7.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Puskas Academy 34.7% 42.0% -7.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 26.4% +3.3 pp Aligned
Paks 35.6% 31.6% +4.0 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Puskas Academy's win probability at 42.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 7.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Puskas Academy win 3–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Puskas Academy. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Paks; match finished Puskas Academy

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Paks by 7.3 percentage points (42.9% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 16, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Puskas Academy 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Paks 35.6%
    • xG · Puskas Academy 1.29 — Paks 1.31
  2. Aug 16, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Puskas Academy 2.27 · Draw 3.62 · Paks 3.00
    • Implied 1X2 · Puskas Academy 42.0% · Draw 26.3% · Paks 31.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 16, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Puskas Academy 2.27 · Draw 3.61 · Paks 3.01
    • Implied 1X2 · Puskas Academy 42.0% · Draw 26.4% · Paks 31.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 16, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Puskas Academy win · 3–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 22/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 01:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3610408

Closing Odds 2.27
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Puskas Academy win · Puskas Academy 3–2 Paks
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: NB I
  • Fixture: Puskas Academy vs Paks
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-16 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Puskas Academy 1.29 — Paks 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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NB I NB I — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Gyori ETO FC 8 4 3 1 15
2 Puskas Academy 8 5 0 3 15
3 Vasas 8 4 2 2 14
4 Ujpest 8 4 2 2 14
5 Ferencvarosi TC 7 3 3 1 12
6 Paks 8 3 2 3 11
7 MTK Budapest 8 2 3 3 9
8 Kisvarda FC 8 2 3 3 9
9 Debreceni VSC 8 2 3 3 9
10 Nyiregyhaza 8 2 2 4 8
11 Budapest Honved 7 1 3 3 6
12 Zalaegerszegi TE 8 2 0 6 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vasas 8 17 11 +6 14
2 Ujpest 8 17 13 +4 14
3 Gyori ETO FC 8 16 10 +6 15
4 Paks 8 16 17 -1 11
5 MTK Budapest 8 15 14 +1 9
6 Puskas Academy 8 13 10 +3 15
7 Debreceni VSC 8 12 15 -3 9
8 Ferencvarosi TC 7 11 8 +3 12
9 Budapest Honved 7 11 14 -3 6
10 Kisvarda FC 8 9 10 -1 9
11 Nyiregyhaza 8 9 14 -5 8
12 Zalaegerszegi TE 8 7 17 -10 6
NB I Hungary. NB I Predictions