Predictions / Football / Hungary. NB I / Ferencvarosi TC vs Vasas

Prediction Audit: Ferencvarosi TC vs Vasas Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Ferencvarosi TC Ferencvarosi TC
Aug 02, 2026 - 15:30
0 1.51
0 1.09
xG Accuracy: 49%
Vasas Vasas

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Ferencvarosi TC at 45.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Ferencvarosi TC Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Ferencvarosi TC higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Ferencvarosi TC -20.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Ferencvarosi TC 45.3% 65.4% -20.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 28.9% 20.0% +8.9 pp Model Higher
Vasas 25.8% 14.7% +11.1 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Ferencvarosi TC's win probability at 65.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 45.3%, a difference of 20.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Ferencvarosi TC; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Ferencvarosi TC by 20.1 percentage points (65.4% vs model 45.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 02, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Ferencvarosi TC 45.3% · Draw 28.9% · Vasas 25.8%
    • xG · Ferencvarosi TC 1.51 — Vasas 1.09
  2. Aug 02, 2026 · 15:04 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Ferencvarosi TC 1.45 · Draw 4.75 · Vasas 6.47
    • Implied 1X2 · Ferencvarosi TC 65.4% · Draw 20.0% · Vasas 14.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 02, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Ferencvarosi TC 1.45 · Draw 4.75 · Vasas 6.47
    • Implied 1X2 · Ferencvarosi TC 65.4% · Draw 20.0% · Vasas 14.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 02, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (20 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 01:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1955242

Closing Odds 1.45
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Ferencvarosi TC 0–0 Vasas
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: NB I
  • Fixture: Ferencvarosi TC vs Vasas
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-02 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.3% · Draw 28.9% · Away 25.8%
  • xG (showing): Ferencvarosi TC 1.51 — Vasas 1.09 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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NB I NB I — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Gyori ETO FC 8 4 3 1 15
2 Puskas Academy 8 5 0 3 15
3 Vasas 8 4 2 2 14
4 Ujpest 8 4 2 2 14
5 Ferencvarosi TC 7 3 3 1 12
6 Paks 8 3 2 3 11
7 MTK Budapest 8 2 3 3 9
8 Kisvarda FC 8 2 3 3 9
9 Debreceni VSC 8 2 3 3 9
10 Nyiregyhaza 8 2 2 4 8
11 Budapest Honved 7 1 3 3 6
12 Zalaegerszegi TE 8 2 0 6 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vasas 8 17 11 +6 14
2 Ujpest 8 17 13 +4 14
3 Gyori ETO FC 8 16 10 +6 15
4 Paks 8 16 17 -1 11
5 MTK Budapest 8 15 14 +1 9
6 Puskas Academy 8 13 10 +3 15
7 Debreceni VSC 8 12 15 -3 9
8 Ferencvarosi TC 7 11 8 +3 12
9 Budapest Honved 7 11 14 -3 6
10 Kisvarda FC 8 9 10 -1 9
11 Nyiregyhaza 8 9 14 -5 8
12 Zalaegerszegi TE 8 7 17 -10 6
NB I Hungary. NB I Predictions