Prediction Audit: Líšeň vs Plzen Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Líšeň

Sep 05, 2026 - 16:00

0 1.17

3 1.58

xG Accuracy: 49%

Plzen

AI correctly predicted the Plzen win.

The match finished 0–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Plzen Plzen ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Líšeň	26.7%	15.9%	+10.8 pp	Model Edge
Draw	28.0%	20.8%	+7.2 pp	Model Higher
Plzen	45.3%	63.3%	-18.0 pp	Market Higher

The closing market estimates Plzen's win probability at 63.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 45.3%, a difference of 18.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Plzen win 0–3).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Plzen than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.75) — 3 goals materialised
Plzen attacking xG significantly stronger (1.58 vs 1.17)
Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Plzen higher (63.3% vs model 45.3%, 18.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Plzen win 0–3).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 05, 2026 · 19:45 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Líšeň 26.7% · Draw 28.0% · Plzen 45.3%
- xG · Líšeň 1.17 — Plzen 1.58
Sep 05, 2026 · 15:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Líšeň 5.96 · Draw 4.57 · Plzen 1.50
- Implied 1X2 · Líšeň 15.9% · Draw 20.8% · Plzen 63.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 05, 2026 · 15:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Líšeň 5.96 · Draw 4.57 · Plzen 1.50
- Implied 1X2 · Líšeň 15.9% · Draw 20.8% · Plzen 63.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 05, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Plzen win · 0–3
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (18 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 10/100

Betting Confidence 43/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 03:41 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6160934

Closing Odds 1.5

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Plzen win · Líšeň 0–3 Plzen

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Czech Liga
Fixture: Líšeň vs Plzen
Kickoff: 2026-09-05 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
xG (showing): Líšeň 1.17 — Plzen 1.58 (total xG ≈ 2.75)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Czech Liga — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Slavia Praha	9	7	2	0	23
2	Slovan Liberec	9	6	2	1	20
3	Mlada Boleslav	8	5	2	1	17
4	Sigma Olomouc	9	5	1	3	16
5	Teplice	9	5	1	3	16
6	Zbrojovka Brno	9	5	1	3	16
7	Sparta Praha	9	5	0	4	15
8	FK Jablonec	9	4	2	3	14
9	Hradec Králové	9	4	2	3	14
10	Plzen	9	2	4	3	10
11	Baník Ostrava	9	3	1	5	10
12	Bohemians 1905	8	2	3	3	9
13	Pardubice	9	2	2	5	8
14	Líšeň	9	1	2	6	5
15	Slovácko	9	0	4	5	4
16	Zlin	9	0	1	8	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Slavia Praha	9	25	6	+19	23
2	Sparta Praha	9	18	12	+6	15
3	Mlada Boleslav	8	17	9	+8	17
4	Teplice	9	17	15	+2	16
5	Plzen	9	17	17	0	10
6	Sigma Olomouc	9	16	13	+3	16
7	Slovan Liberec	9	13	4	+9	20
8	Zbrojovka Brno	9	12	12	0	16
9	FK Jablonec	9	11	9	+2	14
10	Bohemians 1905	8	9	11	-2	9
11	Pardubice	9	9	14	-5	8
12	Hradec Králové	9	8	9	-1	14
13	Zlin	9	8	19	-11	1
14	Slovácko	9	7	16	-9	4
15	Baník Ostrava	9	7	17	-10	10
16	Líšeň	9	7	18	-11	5

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Slavia Praha	9	15.5	7.2	+8.3	23
2	Slovan Liberec	9	11.4	7.2	+4.2	20
3	FK Jablonec	9	11.1	7.7	+3.4	14
4	Sparta Praha	9	13.3	10.4	+2.9	15
5	Hradec Králové	9	6.8	5.2	+1.6	14
6	Pardubice	9	8.9	8.2	+0.7	8
7	Plzen	9	8.9	8.4	+0.5	10
8	Zbrojovka Brno	9	7.6	7.3	+0.3	16
9	Sigma Olomouc	9	8.4	8.3	+0.1	16
10	Teplice	9	8.6	9.0	-0.4	16
11	Bohemians 1905	8	6.8	8.9	-2.1	9
12	Mlada Boleslav	8	10.8	13.2	-2.4	17
13	Líšeň	9	7.7	10.1	-2.4	5
14	Baník Ostrava	9	11.0	14.7	-3.7	10
15	Slovácko	9	7.5	12.4	-4.9	4
16	Zlin	9	6.1	11.9	-5.8	1