Prediction Audit: Pardubice vs Líšeň Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Pardubice

Aug 29, 2026 - 15:00

1 1.49

2 1.22

xG Accuracy: 70%

Líšeň

The model missed the final outcome (Líšeň win 1–2).

The model had projected Pardubice at 41.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Pardubice Líšeň ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Pardubice	41.9%	59.0%	-17.1 pp	Market Higher
Draw	28.6%	23.5%	+5.1 pp	Model Higher
Líšeň	29.5%	17.5%	+12.0 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Pardubice's win probability at 59.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.9%, a difference of 17.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Líšeň win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Pardubice than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.71) — 3 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

1X2: model leaned Pardubice; match finished Líšeň
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Pardubice by 17.1 percentage points (59.0% vs model 41.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 29, 2026 · 19:43 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Pardubice 41.8% · Draw 28.7% · Líšeň 29.5%
- xG · Pardubice 1.49 — Líšeň 1.22
Aug 29, 2026 · 14:40 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Pardubice 1.61 · Draw 4.04 · Líšeň 5.43
- Implied 1X2 · Pardubice 59.0% · Draw 23.5% · Líšeň 17.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 29, 2026 · 15:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Pardubice 1.61 · Draw 4.04 · Líšeň 5.43
- Implied 1X2 · Pardubice 59.0% · Draw 23.5% · Líšeň 17.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 29, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Líšeň win · 1–2
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (17 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 14/100

Betting Confidence 43/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 03:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5148720

Closing Odds 1.61

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Líšeň win · Pardubice 1–2 Líšeň

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Czech Liga
Fixture: Pardubice vs Líšeň
Kickoff: 2026-08-29 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
xG (showing): Pardubice 1.49 — Líšeň 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.71)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Czech Liga — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Slavia Praha	9	7	2	0	23
2	Slovan Liberec	9	6	2	1	20
3	Mlada Boleslav	8	5	2	1	17
4	Sigma Olomouc	9	5	1	3	16
5	Teplice	9	5	1	3	16
6	Zbrojovka Brno	9	5	1	3	16
7	Sparta Praha	9	5	0	4	15
8	FK Jablonec	9	4	2	3	14
9	Hradec Králové	9	4	2	3	14
10	Plzen	9	2	4	3	10
11	Baník Ostrava	9	3	1	5	10
12	Bohemians 1905	8	2	3	3	9
13	Pardubice	9	2	2	5	8
14	Líšeň	9	1	2	6	5
15	Slovácko	9	0	4	5	4
16	Zlin	9	0	1	8	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Slavia Praha	9	25	6	+19	23
2	Sparta Praha	9	18	12	+6	15
3	Mlada Boleslav	8	17	9	+8	17
4	Teplice	9	17	15	+2	16
5	Plzen	9	17	17	0	10
6	Sigma Olomouc	9	16	13	+3	16
7	Slovan Liberec	9	13	4	+9	20
8	Zbrojovka Brno	9	12	12	0	16
9	FK Jablonec	9	11	9	+2	14
10	Bohemians 1905	8	9	11	-2	9
11	Pardubice	9	9	14	-5	8
12	Hradec Králové	9	8	9	-1	14
13	Zlin	9	8	19	-11	1
14	Slovácko	9	7	16	-9	4
15	Baník Ostrava	9	7	17	-10	10
16	Líšeň	9	7	18	-11	5

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Slavia Praha	9	15.5	7.2	+8.3	23
2	Slovan Liberec	9	11.4	7.2	+4.2	20
3	FK Jablonec	9	11.1	7.7	+3.4	14
4	Sparta Praha	9	13.3	10.4	+2.9	15
5	Hradec Králové	9	6.8	5.2	+1.6	14
6	Pardubice	9	8.9	8.2	+0.7	8
7	Plzen	9	8.9	8.4	+0.5	10
8	Zbrojovka Brno	9	7.6	7.3	+0.3	16
9	Sigma Olomouc	9	8.4	8.3	+0.1	16
10	Teplice	9	8.6	9.0	-0.4	16
11	Bohemians 1905	8	6.8	8.9	-2.1	9
12	Mlada Boleslav	8	10.8	13.2	-2.4	17
13	Líšeň	9	7.7	10.1	-2.4	5
14	Baník Ostrava	9	11.0	14.7	-3.7	10
15	Slovácko	9	7.5	12.4	-4.9	4
16	Zlin	9	6.1	11.9	-5.8	1