Prediction Audit: Plzen vs Zlin Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Plzen

Aug 15, 2026 - 18:00

3 1.92

2 0.98

xG Accuracy: 56%

Zlin

AI correctly predicted the Plzen win.

The match finished 3–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Plzen Plzen ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Plzen	63.1%	75.0%	-11.9 pp	Market Higher
Draw	22.3%	16.1%	+6.2 pp	Model Higher
Zlin	14.6%	8.9%	+5.7 pp	Model Higher

The closing market estimates Plzen's win probability at 75.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 63.1%, a difference of 11.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Plzen win 3–2).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Plzen than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.90) — 5 goals materialised
Plzen attacking xG significantly stronger (1.92 vs 0.98)
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Plzen higher (75.0% vs model 63.1%, 11.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Plzen win 3–2).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 15, 2026 · 19:38 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Plzen 63.2% · Draw 22.3% · Zlin 14.6%
- xG · Plzen 1.92 — Zlin 0.98
Aug 15, 2026 · 17:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Plzen 1.27 · Draw 5.90 · Zlin 10.73
- Implied 1X2 · Plzen 75.0% · Draw 16.1% · Zlin 8.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 15, 2026 · 17:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Plzen 1.27 · Draw 5.90 · Zlin 10.73
- Implied 1X2 · Plzen 75.0% · Draw 16.1% · Zlin 8.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 15, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Plzen win · 3–2
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (12 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

Moderate model lean
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 40/100

Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 07:15 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3393027

Closing Odds 1.27

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Plzen win · Plzen 3–2 Zlin

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Czech Liga
Fixture: Plzen vs Zlin
Kickoff: 2026-08-15 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 63.2% · Draw 22.3% · Away 14.5%
xG (showing): Plzen 1.92 — Zlin 0.98 (total xG ≈ 2.9)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 44.6% · Over 2.5 55.4%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.7% · No 45.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.7% · No 45.3%
Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (10.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Czech Liga — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Slavia Praha	9	7	2	0	23
2	Slovan Liberec	9	6	2	1	20
3	Mlada Boleslav	8	5	2	1	17
4	Sigma Olomouc	9	5	1	3	16
5	Teplice	9	5	1	3	16
6	Zbrojovka Brno	9	5	1	3	16
7	Sparta Praha	9	5	0	4	15
8	FK Jablonec	9	4	2	3	14
9	Hradec Králové	9	4	2	3	14
10	Plzen	9	2	4	3	10
11	Baník Ostrava	9	3	1	5	10
12	Bohemians 1905	8	2	3	3	9
13	Pardubice	9	2	2	5	8
14	Líšeň	9	1	2	6	5
15	Slovácko	9	0	4	5	4
16	Zlin	9	0	1	8	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Slavia Praha	9	25	6	+19	23
2	Sparta Praha	9	18	12	+6	15
3	Mlada Boleslav	8	17	9	+8	17
4	Teplice	9	17	15	+2	16
5	Plzen	9	17	17	0	10
6	Sigma Olomouc	9	16	13	+3	16
7	Slovan Liberec	9	13	4	+9	20
8	Zbrojovka Brno	9	12	12	0	16
9	FK Jablonec	9	11	9	+2	14
10	Bohemians 1905	8	9	11	-2	9
11	Pardubice	9	9	14	-5	8
12	Hradec Králové	9	8	9	-1	14
13	Zlin	9	8	19	-11	1
14	Slovácko	9	7	16	-9	4
15	Baník Ostrava	9	7	17	-10	10
16	Líšeň	9	7	18	-11	5

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Slavia Praha	9	15.5	7.2	+8.3	23
2	Slovan Liberec	9	11.4	7.2	+4.2	20
3	FK Jablonec	9	11.1	7.7	+3.4	14
4	Sparta Praha	9	13.3	10.4	+2.9	15
5	Hradec Králové	9	6.8	5.2	+1.6	14
6	Pardubice	9	8.9	8.2	+0.7	8
7	Plzen	9	8.9	8.4	+0.5	10
8	Zbrojovka Brno	9	7.6	7.3	+0.3	16
9	Sigma Olomouc	9	8.4	8.3	+0.1	16
10	Teplice	9	8.6	9.0	-0.4	16
11	Bohemians 1905	8	6.8	8.9	-2.1	9
12	Mlada Boleslav	8	10.8	13.2	-2.4	17
13	Líšeň	9	7.7	10.1	-2.4	5
14	Baník Ostrava	9	11.0	14.7	-3.7	10
15	Slovácko	9	7.5	12.4	-4.9	4
16	Zlin	9	6.1	11.9	-5.8	1