Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. Czech Liga / Líšeň vs Sigma Olomouc

Prediction Audit: Líšeň vs Sigma Olomouc Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Líšeň Líšeň
Aug 09, 2026 - 18:00
1 1.35
2 1.36
xG Accuracy: 76%
Sigma Olomouc Sigma Olomouc

AI correctly predicted the Sigma Olomouc win.

The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Sigma Olomouc Sigma Olomouc ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Sigma Olomouc higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Sigma Olomouc -13.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Líšeň 30.8% 20.6% +10.2 pp Model Edge
Draw 28.2% 24.8% +3.4 pp Aligned
Sigma Olomouc 41.0% 54.6% -13.6 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Sigma Olomouc's win probability at 54.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.0%, a difference of 13.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Sigma Olomouc win 1–2).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Sigma Olomouc than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.71) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Sigma Olomouc higher (54.6% vs model 41.0%, 13.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Sigma Olomouc win 1–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 09, 2026 · 19:28 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Líšeň 30.8% · Draw 28.2% · Sigma Olomouc 41.0%
    • xG · Líšeň 1.35 — Sigma Olomouc 1.36
  2. Aug 09, 2026 · 17:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Líšeň 4.62 · Draw 3.83 · Sigma Olomouc 1.74
    • Implied 1X2 · Líšeň 20.6% · Draw 24.8% · Sigma Olomouc 54.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 09, 2026 · 18:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Líšeň 4.62 · Draw 3.83 · Sigma Olomouc 1.74
    • Implied 1X2 · Líšeň 20.6% · Draw 24.8% · Sigma Olomouc 54.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 09, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Sigma Olomouc win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (14 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 32/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 01:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2967594

Closing Odds 1.74
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Sigma Olomouc win · Líšeň 1–2 Sigma Olomouc
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Czech Liga
  • Fixture: Líšeň vs Sigma Olomouc
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-09 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.8% · Draw 28.2% · Away 41.0%
  • xG (showing): Líšeň 1.35 — Sigma Olomouc 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.71)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 49.1% · Over 2.5 50.9%); BTTS Yes (Yes 56.6% · No 43.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 56.6% · No 43.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Czech Liga Czech Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Slavia Praha 9 7 2 0 23
2 Slovan Liberec 9 6 2 1 20
3 Mlada Boleslav 8 5 2 1 17
4 Sigma Olomouc 9 5 1 3 16
5 Teplice 9 5 1 3 16
6 Zbrojovka Brno 9 5 1 3 16
7 Sparta Praha 9 5 0 4 15
8 FK Jablonec 9 4 2 3 14
9 Hradec Králové 9 4 2 3 14
10 Plzen 9 2 4 3 10
11 Baník Ostrava 9 3 1 5 10
12 Bohemians 1905 8 2 3 3 9
13 Pardubice 9 2 2 5 8
14 Líšeň 9 1 2 6 5
15 Slovácko 9 0 4 5 4
16 Zlin 9 0 1 8 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Slavia Praha 9 25 6 +19 23
2 Sparta Praha 9 18 12 +6 15
3 Mlada Boleslav 8 17 9 +8 17
4 Teplice 9 17 15 +2 16
5 Plzen 9 17 17 0 10
6 Sigma Olomouc 9 16 13 +3 16
7 Slovan Liberec 9 13 4 +9 20
8 Zbrojovka Brno 9 12 12 0 16
9 FK Jablonec 9 11 9 +2 14
10 Bohemians 1905 8 9 11 -2 9
11 Pardubice 9 9 14 -5 8
12 Hradec Králové 9 8 9 -1 14
13 Zlin 9 8 19 -11 1
14 Slovácko 9 7 16 -9 4
15 Baník Ostrava 9 7 17 -10 10
16 Líšeň 9 7 18 -11 5
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Slavia Praha 9 15.5 7.2 +8.3 23
2 Slovan Liberec 9 11.4 7.2 +4.2 20
3 FK Jablonec 9 11.1 7.7 +3.4 14
4 Sparta Praha 9 13.3 10.4 +2.9 15
5 Hradec Králové 9 6.8 5.2 +1.6 14
6 Pardubice 9 8.9 8.2 +0.7 8
7 Plzen 9 8.9 8.4 +0.5 10
8 Zbrojovka Brno 9 7.6 7.3 +0.3 16
9 Sigma Olomouc 9 8.4 8.3 +0.1 16
10 Teplice 9 8.6 9.0 -0.4 16
11 Bohemians 1905 8 6.8 8.9 -2.1 9
12 Mlada Boleslav 8 10.8 13.2 -2.4 17
13 Líšeň 9 7.7 10.1 -2.4 5
14 Baník Ostrava 9 11.0 14.7 -3.7 10
15 Slovácko 9 7.5 12.4 -4.9 4
16 Zlin 9 6.1 11.9 -5.8 1