Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. Czech Liga / Pardubice vs FK Jablonec

Prediction Audit: Pardubice vs FK Jablonec Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Pardubice Pardubice
Aug 02, 2026 - 18:00
0 0.81
2 1.43
xG Accuracy: 68%
FK Jablonec FK Jablonec

AI correctly predicted the FK Jablonec win.

The match finished 0–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 FK Jablonec FK Jablonec ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 0-0, 1-2 0-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Pardubice higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Pardubice -16.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Pardubice 25.1% 41.1% -16.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 30.3% 27.6% +2.7 pp Aligned
FK Jablonec 44.6% 31.3% +13.4 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Pardubice's win probability at 41.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 25.1%, a difference of 16.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (FK Jablonec win 0–2).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Pardubice than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • FK Jablonec attacking xG significantly stronger (1.43 vs 0.81)
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced FK Jablonec higher (60.6% vs model 44.6%, 16.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (FK Jablonec win 0–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 02, 2026 · 19:21 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Pardubice 25.1% · Draw 30.3% · FK Jablonec 44.6%
    • xG · Pardubice 0.81 — FK Jablonec 1.43
  2. Aug 02, 2026 · 17:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Pardubice 2.32 · Draw 3.46 · FK Jablonec 3.05
    • Implied 1X2 · Pardubice 41.1% · Draw 27.6% · FK Jablonec 31.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 02, 2026 · 18:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Pardubice 2.32 · Draw 3.46 · FK Jablonec 3.05
    • Implied 1X2 · Pardubice 41.1% · Draw 27.6% · FK Jablonec 31.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 02, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result FK Jablonec win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (16 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Moderate model lean
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 6/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 01:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1955047

Closing Odds 2.32
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result FK Jablonec win · Pardubice 0–2 FK Jablonec
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Czech Liga
  • Fixture: Pardubice vs FK Jablonec
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-02 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 25.1% · Draw 30.3% · Away 44.6%
  • xG (showing): Pardubice 0.81 — FK Jablonec 1.43 (total xG ≈ 2.24)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): FK Jablonec
  • Model: 44.6% · Implied: 31.3% · Probability edge: +13.4 pts · Est. EV: +5.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 43.8% · No 56.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (15.2%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Czech Liga Czech Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Slavia Praha 9 7 2 0 23
2 Slovan Liberec 9 6 2 1 20
3 Mlada Boleslav 8 5 2 1 17
4 Sigma Olomouc 9 5 1 3 16
5 Teplice 9 5 1 3 16
6 Zbrojovka Brno 9 5 1 3 16
7 Sparta Praha 9 5 0 4 15
8 FK Jablonec 9 4 2 3 14
9 Hradec Králové 9 4 2 3 14
10 Plzen 9 2 4 3 10
11 Baník Ostrava 9 3 1 5 10
12 Bohemians 1905 8 2 3 3 9
13 Pardubice 9 2 2 5 8
14 Líšeň 9 1 2 6 5
15 Slovácko 9 0 4 5 4
16 Zlin 9 0 1 8 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Slavia Praha 9 25 6 +19 23
2 Sparta Praha 9 18 12 +6 15
3 Mlada Boleslav 8 17 9 +8 17
4 Teplice 9 17 15 +2 16
5 Plzen 9 17 17 0 10
6 Sigma Olomouc 9 16 13 +3 16
7 Slovan Liberec 9 13 4 +9 20
8 Zbrojovka Brno 9 12 12 0 16
9 FK Jablonec 9 11 9 +2 14
10 Bohemians 1905 8 9 11 -2 9
11 Pardubice 9 9 14 -5 8
12 Hradec Králové 9 8 9 -1 14
13 Zlin 9 8 19 -11 1
14 Slovácko 9 7 16 -9 4
15 Baník Ostrava 9 7 17 -10 10
16 Líšeň 9 7 18 -11 5
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Slavia Praha 9 15.5 7.2 +8.3 23
2 Slovan Liberec 9 11.4 7.2 +4.2 20
3 FK Jablonec 9 11.1 7.7 +3.4 14
4 Sparta Praha 9 13.3 10.4 +2.9 15
5 Hradec Králové 9 6.8 5.2 +1.6 14
6 Pardubice 9 8.9 8.2 +0.7 8
7 Plzen 9 8.9 8.4 +0.5 10
8 Zbrojovka Brno 9 7.6 7.3 +0.3 16
9 Sigma Olomouc 9 8.4 8.3 +0.1 16
10 Teplice 9 8.6 9.0 -0.4 16
11 Bohemians 1905 8 6.8 8.9 -2.1 9
12 Mlada Boleslav 8 10.8 13.2 -2.4 17
13 Líšeň 9 7.7 10.1 -2.4 5
14 Baník Ostrava 9 11.0 14.7 -3.7 10
15 Slovácko 9 7.5 12.4 -4.9 4
16 Zlin 9 6.1 11.9 -5.8 1