Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. Czech Liga / Zlin vs Baník Ostrava

Prediction Audit: Zlin vs Baník Ostrava Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Zlin Zlin
Jul 25, 2026 - 15:00
0 2.28
1 1.37
xG Accuracy: 48%
Baník Ostrava Baník Ostrava

The model missed the final outcome (Baník Ostrava win 0–1).

The model had projected Zlin at 48.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Zlin Baník Ostrava ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 3-1, 2-0, 2-2 0-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Zlin considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Zlin +19.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Zlin 48.2% 28.5% +19.7 pp Model Edge
Draw 24.5% 28.4% -3.9 pp Aligned
Baník Ostrava 27.3% 43.1% -15.8 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Zlin's win probability at 48.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 28.5%, a difference of 19.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Baník Ostrava win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Zlin.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Zlin by 19.7 percentage points (28.5% vs model 48.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 25, 2026 · 22:07 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Zlin 48.1% · Draw 24.5% · Baník Ostrava 27.4%
    • xG · Zlin 2.28 — Baník Ostrava 1.37
  2. Jul 25, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Zlin 3.35 · Draw 3.36 · Baník Ostrava 2.21
    • Implied 1X2 · Zlin 28.5% · Draw 28.4% · Baník Ostrava 43.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 25, 2026 · 14:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Zlin 3.35 · Draw 3.36 · Baník Ostrava 2.21
    • Implied 1X2 · Zlin 28.5% · Draw 28.4% · Baník Ostrava 43.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 25, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Baník Ostrava win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 47/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (20 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (69%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 16/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1456274

Closing Odds 3.35
AI Fair Odds 1.75
CLV Pending
Final Result Baník Ostrava win · Zlin 0–1 Baník Ostrava
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 57.1%
  • Historical Bucket: 55–60% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Czech First League
  • Fixture: FC Zlín vs Baník Ostrava
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-25 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 0.0% · Draw 50.0% · Away 50.0%
  • xG (showing): FC Zlín 2.28 — Baník Ostrava 1.37 (total xG ≈ 3.65)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Czech Liga Matches Track Zlin Next Match Prediction Track Baník Ostrava Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Zlin & Baník Ostrava!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Czech Liga Czech Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Slavia Praha 9 7 2 0 23
2 Slovan Liberec 9 6 2 1 20
3 Mlada Boleslav 8 5 2 1 17
4 Sigma Olomouc 9 5 1 3 16
5 Teplice 9 5 1 3 16
6 Zbrojovka Brno 9 5 1 3 16
7 Sparta Praha 9 5 0 4 15
8 FK Jablonec 9 4 2 3 14
9 Hradec Králové 9 4 2 3 14
10 Plzen 9 2 4 3 10
11 Baník Ostrava 9 3 1 5 10
12 Bohemians 1905 8 2 3 3 9
13 Pardubice 9 2 2 5 8
14 Líšeň 9 1 2 6 5
15 Slovácko 9 0 4 5 4
16 Zlin 9 0 1 8 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Slavia Praha 9 25 6 +19 23
2 Sparta Praha 9 18 12 +6 15
3 Mlada Boleslav 8 17 9 +8 17
4 Teplice 9 17 15 +2 16
5 Plzen 9 17 17 0 10
6 Sigma Olomouc 9 16 13 +3 16
7 Slovan Liberec 9 13 4 +9 20
8 Zbrojovka Brno 9 12 12 0 16
9 FK Jablonec 9 11 9 +2 14
10 Bohemians 1905 8 9 11 -2 9
11 Pardubice 9 9 14 -5 8
12 Hradec Králové 9 8 9 -1 14
13 Zlin 9 8 19 -11 1
14 Slovácko 9 7 16 -9 4
15 Baník Ostrava 9 7 17 -10 10
16 Líšeň 9 7 18 -11 5
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Slavia Praha 9 15.5 7.2 +8.3 23
2 Slovan Liberec 9 11.4 7.2 +4.2 20
3 FK Jablonec 9 11.1 7.7 +3.4 14
4 Sparta Praha 9 13.3 10.4 +2.9 15
5 Hradec Králové 9 6.8 5.2 +1.6 14
6 Pardubice 9 8.9 8.2 +0.7 8
7 Plzen 9 8.9 8.4 +0.5 10
8 Zbrojovka Brno 9 7.6 7.3 +0.3 16
9 Sigma Olomouc 9 8.4 8.3 +0.1 16
10 Teplice 9 8.6 9.0 -0.4 16
11 Bohemians 1905 8 6.8 8.9 -2.1 9
12 Mlada Boleslav 8 10.8 13.2 -2.4 17
13 Líšeň 9 7.7 10.1 -2.4 5
14 Baník Ostrava 9 11.0 14.7 -3.7 10
15 Slovácko 9 7.5 12.4 -4.9 4
16 Zlin 9 6.1 11.9 -5.8 1