Prediction Audit: Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Teplice

Jul 25, 2026 - 15:00

3 2.03

1 1.40

xG Accuracy: 69%

Bohemians 1905

AI correctly predicted the Teplice win.

The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Teplice Teplice ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 1-0, 2-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Teplice	48.0%	42.6%	+5.5 pp	Model Higher
Draw	25.6%	30.3%	-4.6 pp	Aligned
Bohemians 1905	26.3%	27.2%	-0.8 pp	Aligned

The statistical model estimates Teplice's win probability at 48.0%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 42.6%, a difference of 5.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Teplice win 3–1).

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Teplice.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.43) — 4 goals materialised
Teplice attacking xG significantly stronger (2.03 vs 1.40)
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Teplice more conservatively (42.5% vs model 48.0%, 5.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Teplice win 3–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Jul 25, 2026 · 22:06 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Teplice 48.1% · Draw 25.6% · Bohemians 1905 26.3%
- xG · Teplice 2.03 — Bohemians 1905 1.40
Jul 25, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Teplice 2.24 · Draw 3.15 · Bohemians 1905 3.51
- Implied 1X2 · Teplice 42.6% · Draw 30.3% · Bohemians 1905 27.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Jul 25, 2026 · 14:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Teplice 2.24 · Draw 3.15 · Bohemians 1905 3.51
- Implied 1X2 · Teplice 42.6% · Draw 30.3% · Bohemians 1905 27.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Jul 25, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Teplice win · 3–1
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 70/100 · High

Validation: Pass
High xG deviation from league baseline (50%+)

Evidence ★★★★★

Moderate model lean
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Market Compatibility 72/100

Betting Confidence 73/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1456269

Closing Odds 2.24

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Teplice win · Teplice 3–1 Bohemians 1905

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Czech First League
Fixture: Teplice vs Bohemians 1905
Kickoff: 2026-07-25 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 50.0% · Draw 50.0% · Away 0.0%
xG (showing): Teplice 2.03 — Bohemians 1905 1.4 (total xG ≈ 3.43)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Czech Liga — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Slavia Praha	9	7	2	0	23
2	Slovan Liberec	9	6	2	1	20
3	Mlada Boleslav	8	5	2	1	17
4	Sigma Olomouc	9	5	1	3	16
5	Teplice	9	5	1	3	16
6	Zbrojovka Brno	9	5	1	3	16
7	Sparta Praha	9	5	0	4	15
8	FK Jablonec	9	4	2	3	14
9	Hradec Králové	9	4	2	3	14
10	Plzen	9	2	4	3	10
11	Baník Ostrava	9	3	1	5	10
12	Bohemians 1905	8	2	3	3	9
13	Pardubice	9	2	2	5	8
14	Líšeň	9	1	2	6	5
15	Slovácko	9	0	4	5	4
16	Zlin	9	0	1	8	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Slavia Praha	9	25	6	+19	23
2	Sparta Praha	9	18	12	+6	15
3	Mlada Boleslav	8	17	9	+8	17
4	Teplice	9	17	15	+2	16
5	Plzen	9	17	17	0	10
6	Sigma Olomouc	9	16	13	+3	16
7	Slovan Liberec	9	13	4	+9	20
8	Zbrojovka Brno	9	12	12	0	16
9	FK Jablonec	9	11	9	+2	14
10	Bohemians 1905	8	9	11	-2	9
11	Pardubice	9	9	14	-5	8
12	Hradec Králové	9	8	9	-1	14
13	Zlin	9	8	19	-11	1
14	Slovácko	9	7	16	-9	4
15	Baník Ostrava	9	7	17	-10	10
16	Líšeň	9	7	18	-11	5

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Slavia Praha	9	15.5	7.2	+8.3	23
2	Slovan Liberec	9	11.4	7.2	+4.2	20
3	FK Jablonec	9	11.1	7.7	+3.4	14
4	Sparta Praha	9	13.3	10.4	+2.9	15
5	Hradec Králové	9	6.8	5.2	+1.6	14
6	Pardubice	9	8.9	8.2	+0.7	8
7	Plzen	9	8.9	8.4	+0.5	10
8	Zbrojovka Brno	9	7.6	7.3	+0.3	16
9	Sigma Olomouc	9	8.4	8.3	+0.1	16
10	Teplice	9	8.6	9.0	-0.4	16
11	Bohemians 1905	8	6.8	8.9	-2.1	9
12	Mlada Boleslav	8	10.8	13.2	-2.4	17
13	Líšeň	9	7.7	10.1	-2.4	5
14	Baník Ostrava	9	11.0	14.7	-3.7	10
15	Slovácko	9	7.5	12.4	-4.9	4
16	Zlin	9	6.1	11.9	-5.8	1