Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. Czech Liga / FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc

Prediction Audit: FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

FK Jablonec FK Jablonec
Jul 26, 2026 - 15:30
2 2.70
1 0.94
xG Accuracy: 81%
Sigma Olomouc Sigma Olomouc

AI correctly predicted the FK Jablonec win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 FK Jablonec FK Jablonec ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, 3-1, 1-0 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates FK Jablonec considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: FK Jablonec +35.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
FK Jablonec 73.6% 38.6% +35.0 pp Model Edge
Draw 16.6% 28.0% -11.3 pp Market Higher
Sigma Olomouc 9.7% 33.4% -23.6 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates FK Jablonec's win probability at 73.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 38.6%, a difference of 35.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (FK Jablonec win 2–1).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.64) — 3 goals materialised
  • FK Jablonec attacking xG significantly stronger (2.70 vs 0.94)
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced FK Jablonec more conservatively (38.6% vs model 73.6%, 35.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (FK Jablonec win 2–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 26, 2026 · 20:06 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · FK Jablonec 73.6% · Draw 16.7% · Sigma Olomouc 9.7%
    • xG · FK Jablonec 2.70 — Sigma Olomouc 0.94
  2. Jul 26, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · FK Jablonec 2.47 · Draw 3.41 · Sigma Olomouc 2.86
    • Implied 1X2 · FK Jablonec 38.6% · Draw 28.0% · Sigma Olomouc 33.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 26, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · FK Jablonec 2.47 · Draw 3.41 · Sigma Olomouc 2.86
    • Implied 1X2 · FK Jablonec 38.6% · Draw 28.0% · Sigma Olomouc 33.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 26, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result FK Jablonec win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 20/100 · Not reliable
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (35 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (100%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 5/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1449962

Closing Odds 2.47
AI Fair Odds 1.38
CLV Pending
Final Result FK Jablonec win · FK Jablonec 2–1 Sigma Olomouc
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 72.3%
  • Historical Bucket: 70–75% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours FK Jablonec; market prices FK Jablonec instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: FK Jablonec 2.70 xG vs Sigma Olomouc 0.94 → FK Jablonec 73.6%
  • Market: FK Jablonec ~38.6% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Predictions
Czech Liga Czech Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Slavia Praha 9 7 2 0 23
2 Slovan Liberec 9 6 2 1 20
3 Mlada Boleslav 8 5 2 1 17
4 Sigma Olomouc 9 5 1 3 16
5 Teplice 9 5 1 3 16
6 Zbrojovka Brno 9 5 1 3 16
7 Sparta Praha 9 5 0 4 15
8 FK Jablonec 9 4 2 3 14
9 Hradec Králové 9 4 2 3 14
10 Plzen 9 2 4 3 10
11 Baník Ostrava 9 3 1 5 10
12 Bohemians 1905 8 2 3 3 9
13 Pardubice 9 2 2 5 8
14 Líšeň 9 1 2 6 5
15 Slovácko 9 0 4 5 4
16 Zlin 9 0 1 8 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Slavia Praha 9 25 6 +19 23
2 Sparta Praha 9 18 12 +6 15
3 Mlada Boleslav 8 17 9 +8 17
4 Teplice 9 17 15 +2 16
5 Plzen 9 17 17 0 10
6 Sigma Olomouc 9 16 13 +3 16
7 Slovan Liberec 9 13 4 +9 20
8 Zbrojovka Brno 9 12 12 0 16
9 FK Jablonec 9 11 9 +2 14
10 Bohemians 1905 8 9 11 -2 9
11 Pardubice 9 9 14 -5 8
12 Hradec Králové 9 8 9 -1 14
13 Zlin 9 8 19 -11 1
14 Slovácko 9 7 16 -9 4
15 Baník Ostrava 9 7 17 -10 10
16 Líšeň 9 7 18 -11 5
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Slavia Praha 9 15.5 7.2 +8.3 23
2 Slovan Liberec 9 11.4 7.2 +4.2 20
3 FK Jablonec 9 11.1 7.7 +3.4 14
4 Sparta Praha 9 13.3 10.4 +2.9 15
5 Hradec Králové 9 6.8 5.2 +1.6 14
6 Pardubice 9 8.9 8.2 +0.7 8
7 Plzen 9 8.9 8.4 +0.5 10
8 Zbrojovka Brno 9 7.6 7.3 +0.3 16
9 Sigma Olomouc 9 8.4 8.3 +0.1 16
10 Teplice 9 8.6 9.0 -0.4 16
11 Bohemians 1905 8 6.8 8.9 -2.1 9
12 Mlada Boleslav 8 10.8 13.2 -2.4 17
13 Líšeň 9 7.7 10.1 -2.4 5
14 Baník Ostrava 9 11.0 14.7 -3.7 10
15 Slovácko 9 7.5 12.4 -4.9 4
16 Zlin 9 6.1 11.9 -5.8 1