Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. FNL / Hanácká vs Vysočina Jihlava

Prediction Audit: Hanácká vs Vysočina Jihlava Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Hanácká Hanácká
Aug 15, 2026 - 16:00
0 1.37
4 1.23
xG Accuracy: 32%
Vysočina Jihlava Vysočina Jihlava

The model missed the final outcome (Vysočina Jihlava win 0–4).

The model had projected Hanácká at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Hanácká Vysočina Jihlava ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Vysočina Jihlava higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Vysočina Jihlava -6.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Hanácká 38.5% 34.7% +3.8 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 26.7% +2.9 pp Aligned
Vysočina Jihlava 31.9% 38.6% -6.7 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Vysočina Jihlava's win probability at 38.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.9%, a difference of 6.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Vysočina Jihlava win 0–4.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Vysočina Jihlava. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Hanácká by 6.7 percentage points (45.2% vs model 38.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 15, 2026 · 15:56 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Hanácká 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Vysočina Jihlava 31.9%
    • xG · Hanácká 1.37 — Vysočina Jihlava 1.23
  2. Aug 15, 2026 · 15:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Hanácká 2.64 · Draw 3.43 · Vysočina Jihlava 2.37
    • Implied 1X2 · Hanácká 34.7% · Draw 26.7% · Vysočina Jihlava 38.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 15, 2026 · 15:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Hanácká 2.64 · Draw 3.43 · Vysočina Jihlava 2.37
    • Implied 1X2 · Hanácká 34.7% · Draw 26.7% · Vysočina Jihlava 38.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 15, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Vysočina Jihlava win · 0–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 23/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 02:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3362465

Closing Odds 2.37
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Vysočina Jihlava win · Hanácká 0–4 Vysočina Jihlava
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: FNL
  • Fixture: Hanácká vs Vysočina Jihlava
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
  • xG (showing): Hanácká 1.37 — Vysočina Jihlava 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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