Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. FNL / Vysočina Jihlava vs Příbram

Prediction Audit: Vysočina Jihlava vs Příbram Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Vysočina Jihlava Vysočina Jihlava
Aug 07, 2026 - 15:45
1 1.30
2 1.30
xG Accuracy: 76%
Příbram Příbram

The model missed the final outcome (Příbram win 1–2).

The model had projected Vysočina Jihlava at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Vysočina Jihlava Příbram ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Vysočina Jihlava higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Vysočina Jihlava -12.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Vysočina Jihlava 35.2% 48.0% -12.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 27.4% +2.3 pp Aligned
Příbram 35.2% 24.6% +10.6 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Vysočina Jihlava's win probability at 48.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 12.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Příbram win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Vysočina Jihlava than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Vysočina Jihlava; match finished Příbram

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Vysočina Jihlava by 12.9 percentage points (48.1% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 07, 2026 · 15:44 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Vysočina Jihlava 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Příbram 35.2%
    • xG · Vysočina Jihlava 1.30 — Příbram 1.30
  2. Aug 07, 2026 · 15:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Vysočina Jihlava 1.93 · Draw 3.39 · Příbram 3.77
    • Implied 1X2 · Vysočina Jihlava 48.0% · Draw 27.4% · Příbram 24.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 07, 2026 · 15:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Vysočina Jihlava 1.93 · Draw 3.39 · Příbram 3.77
    • Implied 1X2 · Vysočina Jihlava 48.0% · Draw 27.4% · Příbram 24.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 07, 2026 · 15:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Příbram win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 35/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 01, 2026 · 01:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2672065

Closing Odds 1.93
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Příbram win · Vysočina Jihlava 1–2 Příbram
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: FNL
  • Fixture: Vysočina Jihlava vs Příbram
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-07 15:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Vysočina Jihlava 1.3 — Příbram 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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