Predictions / Football / Guatemala. Liga Nacional / Cobán Imperial vs Aurora

Prediction Audit: Cobán Imperial vs Aurora Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Cobán Imperial Cobán Imperial
Sep 27, 2026 - 19:00
3 1.39
2 1.21
xG Accuracy: 52%
Aurora Aurora

AI correctly predicted the Cobán Imperial win.

The match finished 3–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Cobán Imperial Cobán Imperial ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Cobán Imperial higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Cobán Imperial -22.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Cobán Imperial 39.5% 61.9% -22.4 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 23.3% +6.2 pp Model Higher
Aurora 31.0% 14.8% +16.2 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Cobán Imperial's win probability at 61.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.5%, a difference of 22.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Cobán Imperial win 3–2).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Cobán Imperial higher (61.9% vs model 39.5%, 22.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Cobán Imperial win 3–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 27, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Cobán Imperial 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Aurora 31.0%
    • xG · Cobán Imperial 1.39 — Aurora 1.21
  2. Sep 27, 2026 · 18:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Cobán Imperial 1.48 · Draw 3.93 · Aurora 6.19
    • Implied 1X2 · Cobán Imperial 61.9% · Draw 23.3% · Aurora 14.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 27, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Cobán Imperial 1.48 · Draw 3.93 · Aurora 6.19
    • Implied 1X2 · Cobán Imperial 61.9% · Draw 23.3% · Aurora 14.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 27, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Cobán Imperial win · 3–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (22 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10110658

Closing Odds 1.48
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Cobán Imperial win · Cobán Imperial 3–2 Aurora
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Liga Nacional
  • Fixture: Cobán Imperial vs Aurora
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-27 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
  • xG (showing): Cobán Imperial 1.39 — Aurora 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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