Prediction Audit: Guastatoya vs Marquense Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Guastatoya

Aug 29, 2026 - 21:00

1 1.41

2 1.19

xG Accuracy: 72%

Marquense

The model missed the final outcome (Marquense win 1–2).

The model had projected Guastatoya at 40.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Guastatoya Marquense ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Guastatoya	40.4%	57.2%	-16.8 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.4%	25.7%	+3.8 pp	Aligned
Marquense	30.1%	17.1%	+13.0 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Guastatoya's win probability at 57.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.4%, a difference of 16.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Marquense win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Guastatoya than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
1X2: model leaned Guastatoya; match finished Marquense

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Guastatoya by 16.8 percentage points (57.2% vs model 40.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 29, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Guastatoya 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Marquense 30.1%
- xG · Guastatoya 1.41 — Marquense 1.19
Aug 29, 2026 · 20:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Guastatoya 1.59 · Draw 3.54 · Marquense 5.32
- Implied 1X2 · Guastatoya 57.2% · Draw 25.7% · Marquense 17.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 29, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Guastatoya 1.59 · Draw 3.54 · Marquense 5.32
- Implied 1X2 · Guastatoya 57.2% · Draw 25.7% · Marquense 17.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 29, 2026 · 21:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Marquense win · 1–2
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (17 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 16/100

Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 05:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5163942

Closing Odds 1.59

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Marquense win · Guastatoya 1–2 Marquense

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Liga Nacional
Fixture: Guastatoya vs Marquense
Kickoff: 2026-08-29 21:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Away 30.1%
xG (showing): Guastatoya 1.41 — Marquense 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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