AI correctly predicted the Xelajú win.
The match finished 4–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Xelajú Xelajú ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xelajú | 36.6% | 39.5% | -2.9 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 32.7% | -3.1 pp | Aligned |
| Antigua GFC | 33.8% | 27.8% | +5.9 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Antigua GFC's win probability at 33.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 27.8%, a difference of 5.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Xelajú win 4–0).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Antigua GFC.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Xelajú more conservatively (30.7% vs model 36.6%, 5.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Xelajú win 4–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 01:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Xelajú 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Antigua GFC 33.8%
- xG · Xelajú 1.33 — Antigua GFC 1.27
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 01:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Xelajú 2.32 · Draw 2.80 · Antigua GFC 3.29
- Implied 1X2 · Xelajú 39.5% · Draw 32.7% · Antigua GFC 27.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 01:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Xelajú 2.32 · Draw 2.80 · Antigua GFC 3.29
- Implied 1X2 · Xelajú 39.5% · Draw 32.7% · Antigua GFC 27.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 24, 2026 · 02:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Xelajú win · 4–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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