Predictions / Football / Guatemala. Liga Nacional / Cobán Imperial vs Mixco

Prediction Audit: Cobán Imperial vs Mixco Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Cobán Imperial Cobán Imperial
Aug 15, 2026 - 19:00
3 1.25
2 1.35
xG Accuracy: 52%
Mixco Mixco

The model missed the final outcome (Cobán Imperial win 3–2).

The model had projected Mixco at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Mixco Cobán Imperial ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Cobán Imperial higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Cobán Imperial -19.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Cobán Imperial 32.9% 52.7% -19.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 28.0% +1.6 pp Aligned
Mixco 37.5% 19.3% +18.3 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Cobán Imperial's win probability at 52.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 19.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Cobán Imperial win 3–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Cobán Imperial than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Mixco; match finished Cobán Imperial

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Mixco by 19.9 percentage points (57.4% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 15, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Cobán Imperial 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Mixco 37.6%
    • xG · Cobán Imperial 1.25 — Mixco 1.35
  2. Aug 15, 2026 · 18:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Cobán Imperial 1.76 · Draw 3.31 · Mixco 4.81
    • Implied 1X2 · Cobán Imperial 52.7% · Draw 28.0% · Mixco 19.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 15, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Cobán Imperial 1.76 · Draw 3.31 · Mixco 4.81
    • Implied 1X2 · Cobán Imperial 52.7% · Draw 28.0% · Mixco 19.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 15, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Cobán Imperial win · 3–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (20 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 18/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 03:15 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3366907

Closing Odds 1.76
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Cobán Imperial win · Cobán Imperial 3–2 Mixco
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Liga Nacional
  • Fixture: Cobán Imperial vs Mixco
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
  • xG (showing): Cobán Imperial 1.25 — Mixco 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Mixco
  • Model: 37.6% · Implied: 19.3% · Probability edge: +18.3 pts · Est. EV: +5.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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