AI correctly predicted the Guastatoya win.
The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Guastatoya Guastatoya ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aurora | 33.4% | 41.9% | -8.4 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.9% | 31.5% | -1.6 pp | Aligned |
| Guastatoya | 36.7% | 26.6% | +10.0 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates Guastatoya's win probability at 36.7%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 26.6%, a difference of 10.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Guastatoya win 0–1).
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Guastatoya.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Guastatoya more conservatively (26.7% vs model 36.7%, 10.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Guastatoya win 0–1).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 23:33 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Aurora 33.5% · Draw 29.9% · Guastatoya 36.7%
- xG · Aurora 1.18 — Guastatoya 1.42
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Aurora 2.19 · Draw 2.91 · Guastatoya 3.44
- Implied 1X2 · Aurora 41.9% · Draw 31.5% · Guastatoya 26.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Aurora 2.19 · Draw 2.91 · Guastatoya 3.44
- Implied 1X2 · Aurora 41.9% · Draw 31.5% · Guastatoya 26.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 21:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Guastatoya win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (10 pp)
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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