Prediction Audit: Temp Barnaul vs KDV Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Temp Barnaul

Jul 30, 2026 - 12:00

3 1.26

4 1.34

xG Accuracy: 30%

KDV

AI correctly predicted the KDV win.

The match finished 3–4, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 KDV KDV ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Temp Barnaul	33.3%	12.0%	+21.3 pp	Model Edge
Draw	29.6%	16.5%	+13.1 pp	Model Edge
KDV	37.1%	71.5%	-34.4 pp	Market Higher

The closing market estimates KDV's win probability at 71.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 34.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (KDV win 3–4).

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced KDV higher (71.5% vs model 37.1%, 34.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (KDV win 3–4).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Jul 30, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Temp Barnaul 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · KDV 37.0%
- xG · Temp Barnaul 1.26 — KDV 1.34
Jul 30, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Temp Barnaul 7.50 · Draw 5.45 · KDV 1.26
- Implied 1X2 · Temp Barnaul 12.0% · Draw 16.5% · KDV 71.5%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
Jul 30, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Temp Barnaul 7.50 · Draw 5.45 · KDV 1.26
- Implied 1X2 · Temp Barnaul 12.0% · Draw 16.5% · KDV 71.5%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
Jul 30, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result KDV win · 3–4
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 32/100 · Low

Validation: Fail
Large market gap (34 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market strongly disagrees on price
Validation failed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 01:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1524020

Closing Odds 1.26

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result KDV win · Temp Barnaul 3–4 KDV

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours KDV; market prices KDV instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: Temp Barnaul 1.26 xG vs KDV 1.34 → KDV 37.1%
Market: KDV ~71.5% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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