AI correctly predicted the Bentín Tacna Heroica win.
The match finished 0–3, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Bentín Tacna Heroica Bentín Tacna Heroica ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Binacional | 31.1% | 31.2% | -0.1 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.0% | 19.3% | +9.7 pp | Model Higher |
| Bentín Tacna Heroica | 39.9% | 49.5% | -9.7 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 29.0%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 19.3%, a difference of 9.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Bentín Tacna Heroica win 0–3).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Bentín Tacna Heroica more conservatively (30.2% vs model 39.9%, 9.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Bentín Tacna Heroica win 0–3).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 20:20 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Deportivo Binacional 31.2% · Draw 29.0% · Bentín Tacna Heroica 39.9%
- xG · Deportivo Binacional 1.28 — Bentín Tacna Heroica 1.32
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 17:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Deportivo Binacional 3.30 · Draw 3.36 · Bentín Tacna Heroica 1.81
- Implied 1X2 · Deportivo Binacional 26.3% · Draw 25.8% · Bentín Tacna Heroica 47.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Deportivo Binacional 2.73 · Draw 4.42 · Bentín Tacna Heroica 1.72
- Implied 1X2 · Deportivo Binacional 31.2% · Draw 19.3% · Bentín Tacna Heroica 49.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 18:15 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Bentín Tacna Heroica win · 0–3
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- Statistical edge detected
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Segunda División — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Comercio | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 32 |
| 2 | Carlos A. Mannucci | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 30 |
| 3 | Deportivo Llacuabamba | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 28 |
| 4 | Molinos El Pirata | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 25 |
| 5 | U. San Martin | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 24 |
| 6 | Deportiva Agropecuaria | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 21 |
| 7 | Cesar Vallejo | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 19 |
| 8 | Academia Cantolao | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 14 |
| 9 | San Marcos | 14 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | U. San Martin | 16 | 26 | 17 | +9 | 24 |
| 2 | Molinos El Pirata | 16 | 25 | 20 | +5 | 25 |
| 3 | Deportivo Llacuabamba | 16 | 23 | 10 | +13 | 28 |
| 4 | Carlos A. Mannucci | 16 | 22 | 12 | +10 | 30 |
| 5 | Union Comercio | 16 | 19 | 5 | +14 | 32 |
| 6 | Academia Cantolao | 16 | 19 | 30 | -11 | 14 |
| 7 | Deportiva Agropecuaria | 15 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 21 |
| 8 | Cesar Vallejo | 15 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 19 |
| 9 | San Marcos | 14 | 1 | 44 | -43 | 0 |
