Predictions / Football / Peru. Segunda División / Cesar Vallejo vs Union Comercio

Prediction Audit: Cesar Vallejo vs Union Comercio Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Cesar Vallejo Cesar Vallejo
Jul 25, 2026 - 20:00
0 1.30
0 1.30
xG Accuracy: 49%
Union Comercio Union Comercio

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Cesar Vallejo at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Cesar Vallejo Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Cesar Vallejo higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Cesar Vallejo -6.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Cesar Vallejo 35.2% 41.6% -6.4 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 29.1% +0.6 pp Aligned
Union Comercio 35.2% 29.4% +5.8 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Cesar Vallejo's win probability at 41.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 6.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Cesar Vallejo. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Cesar Vallejo; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Cesar Vallejo by 6.4 percentage points (41.6% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 25, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Cesar Vallejo 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Union Comercio 35.2%
    • xG · Cesar Vallejo 1.30 — Union Comercio 1.30
  2. Jul 25, 2026 · 19:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Cesar Vallejo 2.09 · Draw 2.99 · Union Comercio 2.96
    • Implied 1X2 · Cesar Vallejo 41.6% · Draw 29.1% · Union Comercio 29.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 25, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Cesar Vallejo 2.09 · Draw 2.99 · Union Comercio 2.96
    • Implied 1X2 · Cesar Vallejo 41.6% · Draw 29.1% · Union Comercio 29.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 25, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 67/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1456974

Closing Odds 2.09
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Cesar Vallejo 0–0 Union Comercio
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Peruvian Segunda División
  • Fixture: Cesar Vallejo vs Union Comercio
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-25 20:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Cesar Vallejo 1.3 — Union Comercio 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División Segunda División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Union Comercio 16 9 5 2 32
2 Carlos A. Mannucci 16 9 3 4 30
3 Deportivo Llacuabamba 16 8 4 4 28
4 Molinos El Pirata 16 7 4 5 25
5 U. San Martin 16 7 3 6 24
6 Deportiva Agropecuaria 15 5 6 4 21
7 Cesar Vallejo 15 5 4 6 19
8 Academia Cantolao 16 3 5 8 14
9 San Marcos 14 0 0 14 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 U. San Martin 16 26 17 +9 24
2 Molinos El Pirata 16 25 20 +5 25
3 Deportivo Llacuabamba 16 23 10 +13 28
4 Carlos A. Mannucci 16 22 12 +10 30
5 Union Comercio 16 19 5 +14 32
6 Academia Cantolao 16 19 30 -11 14
7 Deportiva Agropecuaria 15 14 12 +2 21
8 Cesar Vallejo 15 14 13 +1 19
9 San Marcos 14 1 44 -43 0