Predictions / Football / Peru. Segunda División / U. San Martin vs Carlos A. Mannucci

Prediction Audit: U. San Martin vs Carlos A. Mannucci Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

U. San Martin U. San Martin
Jul 25, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.29
0 1.31
xG Accuracy: 57%
Carlos A. Mannucci Carlos A. Mannucci

The model missed the final outcome (U. San Martin win 2–0).

The model had projected Carlos A. Mannucci at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Carlos A. Mannucci U. San Martin ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices U. San Martin higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: U. San Martin -12.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
U. San Martin 34.7% 47.0% -12.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 28.0% +1.6 pp Aligned
Carlos A. Mannucci 35.6% 25.0% +10.7 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates U. San Martin's win probability at 47.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 12.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was U. San Martin win 2–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about U. San Martin than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Carlos A. Mannucci; match finished U. San Martin

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Carlos A. Mannucci by 12.3 percentage points (47.9% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 25, 2026 · 22:26 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · U. San Martin 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Carlos A. Mannucci 35.6%
    • xG · U. San Martin 1.29 — Carlos A. Mannucci 1.31
  2. Jul 25, 2026 · 15:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · U. San Martin 1.89 · Draw 3.17 · Carlos A. Mannucci 3.56
    • Implied 1X2 · U. San Martin 47.0% · Draw 28.0% · Carlos A. Mannucci 25.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 25, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · U. San Martin 1.89 · Draw 3.17 · Carlos A. Mannucci 3.56
    • Implied 1X2 · U. San Martin 47.0% · Draw 28.0% · Carlos A. Mannucci 25.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 25, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result U. San Martin win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 13/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1456513

Closing Odds 1.89
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result U. San Martin win · U. San Martin 2–0 Carlos A. Mannucci
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Peruvian Segunda División
  • Fixture: U. San Martin vs Carlos A. Mannucci
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-25 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): U. San Martin 1.29 — Carlos A. Mannucci 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División Segunda División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Union Comercio 16 9 5 2 32
2 Carlos A. Mannucci 16 9 3 4 30
3 Deportivo Llacuabamba 16 8 4 4 28
4 Molinos El Pirata 16 7 4 5 25
5 U. San Martin 16 7 3 6 24
6 Deportiva Agropecuaria 15 5 6 4 21
7 Cesar Vallejo 15 5 4 6 19
8 Academia Cantolao 16 3 5 8 14
9 San Marcos 14 0 0 14 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 U. San Martin 16 26 17 +9 24
2 Molinos El Pirata 16 25 20 +5 25
3 Deportivo Llacuabamba 16 23 10 +13 28
4 Carlos A. Mannucci 16 22 12 +10 30
5 Union Comercio 16 19 5 +14 32
6 Academia Cantolao 16 19 30 -11 14
7 Deportiva Agropecuaria 15 14 12 +2 21
8 Cesar Vallejo 15 14 13 +1 19
9 San Marcos 14 1 44 -43 0