Predictions / Football / Peru. Segunda División / Molinos El Pirata vs U. San Martin

Prediction Audit: Molinos El Pirata vs U. San Martin Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Molinos El Pirata Molinos El Pirata
Jul 20, 2026 - 16:00
3 1.28
2 1.32
xG Accuracy: 52%
U. San Martin U. San Martin

The model missed the final outcome (Molinos El Pirata win 3–2).

The model had projected U. San Martin at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 U. San Martin Molinos El Pirata ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates U. San Martin considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: U. San Martin +5.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Molinos El Pirata 34.2% 38.5% -4.3 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 30.4% -0.7 pp Aligned
U. San Martin 36.1% 31.1% +5.0 pp Aligned

The statistical model estimates U. San Martin's win probability at 36.1%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 31.1%, a difference of 5.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Molinos El Pirata win 3–2.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on U. San Martin.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned U. San Martin; match finished Molinos El Pirata

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on U. San Martin by 5.0 percentage points (31.1% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 20, 2026 · 19:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Molinos El Pirata 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · U. San Martin 36.1%
    • xG · Molinos El Pirata 1.28 — U. San Martin 1.32
  2. Jul 20, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Molinos El Pirata 2.31 · Draw 2.93 · U. San Martin 2.86
    • Implied 1X2 · Molinos El Pirata 38.5% · Draw 30.4% · U. San Martin 31.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 20, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Molinos El Pirata 2.31 · Draw 2.93 · U. San Martin 2.86
    • Implied 1X2 · Molinos El Pirata 38.5% · Draw 30.4% · U. San Martin 31.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 20, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Molinos El Pirata win · 3–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 26/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 01:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1664900

Closing Odds 2.86
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Molinos El Pirata win · Molinos El Pirata 3–2 U. San Martin
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Peruvian Segunda División
  • Fixture: Molinos El Pirata vs U. San Martin
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-20 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Molinos El Pirata 1.28 — U. San Martin 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División Segunda División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Union Comercio 16 9 5 2 32
2 Carlos A. Mannucci 16 9 3 4 30
3 Deportivo Llacuabamba 16 8 4 4 28
4 Molinos El Pirata 16 7 4 5 25
5 U. San Martin 16 7 3 6 24
6 Deportiva Agropecuaria 15 5 6 4 21
7 Cesar Vallejo 15 5 4 6 19
8 Academia Cantolao 16 3 5 8 14
9 San Marcos 14 0 0 14 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 U. San Martin 16 26 17 +9 24
2 Molinos El Pirata 16 25 20 +5 25
3 Deportivo Llacuabamba 16 23 10 +13 28
4 Carlos A. Mannucci 16 22 12 +10 30
5 Union Comercio 16 19 5 +14 32
6 Academia Cantolao 16 19 30 -11 14
7 Deportiva Agropecuaria 15 14 12 +2 21
8 Cesar Vallejo 15 14 13 +1 19
9 San Marcos 14 1 44 -43 0
Segunda División Peru. Segunda División Predictions