Prediction Audit: Kom vs Iskra Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sep 26, 2026 - 13:00
0 1.19
1 1.41
xG Accuracy: 64%

AI correctly predicted the Iskra win.

The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Iskra Iskra ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 0-1 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Iskra win 0–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 21, 2026 · 02:46 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Kom 1.19 — Iskra 1.41
  2. Sep 26, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Iskra win · 0–1
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:46 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10116252

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Iskra win · Kom 0–1 Iskra
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Second League
  • Fixture: Kom vs Iskra
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.1% · Draw 29.4% · Away 40.5%
  • xG (showing): Kom 1.19 — Iskra 1.41 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League Second League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Mladost Lješkopolje 8 4 4 0 16
2 Jedinstvo 8 5 1 2 16
3 Zeta 8 4 3 1 15
4 Grbalj 7 3 3 1 12
5 Iskra 8 3 1 4 10
6 Lovćen 8 3 1 4 10
7 Rudar 8 2 3 3 9
8 Mogren 8 2 2 4 8
9 Kom 7 2 2 3 8
10 Berane 8 0 2 6 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Mladost Lješkopolje 8 15 9 +6 16
2 Jedinstvo 8 14 9 +5 16
3 Zeta 8 12 7 +5 15
4 Lovćen 8 11 15 -4 10
5 Grbalj 7 10 6 +4 12
6 Mogren 8 10 10 0 8
7 Rudar 8 10 14 -4 9
8 Kom 7 7 7 0 8
9 Iskra 8 5 8 -3 10
10 Berane 8 5 14 -9 2