The model missed the final outcome (Mladost Lješkopolje win 0–3).
The model had projected Lovćen at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Lovćen Mladost Lješkopolje ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lovćen | 35.2% | 50.5% | -15.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 27.3% | +2.3 pp | Aligned |
| Mladost Lješkopolje | 35.2% | 22.2% | +13.0 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Lovćen's win probability at 50.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 15.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Mladost Lješkopolje win 0–3.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Lovćen than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Lovćen by 15.3 percentage points (50.5% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Lovćen 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Mladost Lješkopolje 35.2%
- xG · Lovćen 1.30 — Mladost Lješkopolje 1.30
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Lovćen 1.76 · Draw 3.25 · Mladost Lješkopolje 4.01
- Implied 1X2 · Lovćen 50.5% · Draw 27.3% · Mladost Lješkopolje 22.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Lovćen 1.76 · Draw 3.25 · Mladost Lješkopolje 4.01
- Implied 1X2 · Lovćen 50.5% · Draw 27.3% · Mladost Lješkopolje 22.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Mladost Lješkopolje win · 0–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (15 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Second League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mladost Lješkopolje | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 16 |
| 2 | Jedinstvo | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 3 | Zeta | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 4 | Grbalj | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 5 | Iskra | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 6 | Lovćen | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 7 | Rudar | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Mogren | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 9 | Kom | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 10 | Berane | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mladost Lješkopolje | 8 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 16 |
| 2 | Jedinstvo | 8 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 16 |
| 3 | Zeta | 8 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 15 |
| 4 | Lovćen | 8 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 10 |
| 5 | Grbalj | 7 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 12 |
| 6 | Mogren | 8 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 8 |
| 7 | Rudar | 8 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 9 |
| 8 | Kom | 7 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Iskra | 8 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 10 |
| 10 | Berane | 8 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 2 |
