The model missed the final outcome (Jesenice win 0–2).
The model had projected Bilje at 40.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Bilje Jesenice ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bilje | 40.9% | 21.2% | +19.7 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.4% | 20.0% | +9.4 pp | Model Higher |
| Jesenice | 29.7% | 58.8% | -29.1 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Jesenice's win probability at 58.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 29.7%, a difference of 29.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Jesenice win 0–2.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Bilje; match finished Jesenice
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Bilje by 29.1 percentage points (70.0% vs model 40.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Bilje 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Jesenice 29.6%
- xG · Bilje 1.42 — Jesenice 1.18
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 14:08 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Bilje 4.13 · Draw 4.37 · Jesenice 1.49
- Implied 1X2 · Bilje 21.2% · Draw 20.0% · Jesenice 58.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Bilje 4.13 · Draw 4.37 · Jesenice 1.49
- Implied 1X2 · Bilje 21.2% · Draw 20.0% · Jesenice 58.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Jesenice win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (29 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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2. SNL — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tabor Sežana | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 2 | Triglav | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 3 | Beltinci | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Ilirija | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Jesenice | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Dren Vrhnika | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Rudar | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Bilje | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 9 | Dekani | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 10 | Bistrica | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 11 | Slovan Ljubljana | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 12 | Primorje | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 13 | Krka | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 14 | Krško | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 15 | Dravinja | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 16 | Brežice | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tabor Sežana | 8 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 19 |
| 2 | Beltinci | 7 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Rudar | 7 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 12 |
| 4 | Triglav | 8 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 16 |
| 5 | Bilje | 7 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | Ilirija | 8 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 13 |
| 7 | Jesenice | 7 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 13 |
| 8 | Dren Vrhnika | 7 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 13 |
| 9 | Bistrica | 8 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 10 |
| 10 | Primorje | 8 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 8 |
| 11 | Krka | 7 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Slovan Ljubljana | 7 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 10 |
| 13 | Brežice | 7 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 1 |
| 14 | Dravinja | 7 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 4 |
| 15 | Dekani | 8 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 12 |
| 16 | Krško | 7 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 5 |
