Predictions / Football / Slovenia. 2. SNL / Dekani vs Tabor Sežana

Prediction Audit: Dekani vs Tabor Sežana Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Dekani Dekani
Sep 04, 2026 - 15:00
0 1.33
0 1.27
xG Accuracy: 49%
Tabor Sežana Tabor Sežana

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Dekani at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Dekani Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Tabor Sežana higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Tabor Sežana -23.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Dekani 36.6% 20.6% +16.0 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 22.5% +7.1 pp Model Higher
Tabor Sežana 33.8% 56.9% -23.1 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Tabor Sežana's win probability at 56.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 23.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Dekani; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Dekani by 23.1 percentage points (59.8% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 04, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Dekani 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Tabor Sežana 33.8%
    • xG · Dekani 1.33 — Tabor Sežana 1.27
  2. Sep 04, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Dekani 4.29 · Draw 3.92 · Tabor Sežana 1.55
    • Implied 1X2 · Dekani 20.6% · Draw 22.5% · Tabor Sežana 56.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 04, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Dekani 4.29 · Draw 3.92 · Tabor Sežana 1.55
    • Implied 1X2 · Dekani 20.6% · Draw 22.5% · Tabor Sežana 56.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 04, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (23 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 29, 2026 · 01:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5909215

Closing Odds 1.55
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Dekani 0–0 Tabor Sežana
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 2. SNL
  • Fixture: Dekani vs Tabor Sežana
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-04 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): Dekani 1.33 — Tabor Sežana 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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2. SNL 2. SNL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Tabor Sežana 8 6 1 1 19
2 Triglav 8 5 1 2 16
3 Beltinci 7 4 1 2 13
4 Ilirija 8 4 1 3 13
5 Jesenice 7 4 1 2 13
6 Dren Vrhnika 7 4 1 2 13
7 Rudar 7 4 0 3 12
8 Bilje 7 4 0 3 12
9 Dekani 8 3 3 2 12
10 Bistrica 8 3 1 4 10
11 Slovan Ljubljana 7 3 1 3 10
12 Primorje 8 2 2 4 8
13 Krka 7 2 1 4 7
14 Krško 7 1 2 4 5
15 Dravinja 7 1 1 5 4
16 Brežice 7 0 1 6 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Tabor Sežana 8 18 6 +12 19
2 Beltinci 7 16 9 +7 13
3 Rudar 7 15 12 +3 12
4 Triglav 8 14 5 +9 16
5 Bilje 7 14 14 0 12
6 Ilirija 8 13 6 +7 13
7 Jesenice 7 11 8 +3 13
8 Dren Vrhnika 7 10 7 +3 13
9 Bistrica 8 9 13 -4 10
10 Primorje 8 9 14 -5 8
11 Krka 7 8 11 -3 7
12 Slovan Ljubljana 7 8 14 -6 10
13 Brežice 7 7 16 -9 1
14 Dravinja 7 7 17 -10 4
15 Dekani 8 6 4 +2 12
16 Krško 7 5 14 -9 5
2. SNL Slovenia. 2. SNL Predictions