Predictions / Football / Belgium. Jupiler Pro League / Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise

Prediction Audit: Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Charleroi Charleroi
Sep 05, 2026 - 14:00
2 1.20
3 1.11
xG Accuracy: 48%
Union St. Gilloise Union St. Gilloise

AI correctly predicted the Union St. Gilloise win.

The match finished 2–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Union St. Gilloise Union St. Gilloise ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Union St. Gilloise higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Union St. Gilloise -11.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Charleroi 33.4% 26.3% +7.0 pp Model Higher
Draw 30.3% 26.1% +4.3 pp Aligned
Union St. Gilloise 36.3% 47.6% -11.3 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Union St. Gilloise's win probability at 47.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.3%, a difference of 11.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Union St. Gilloise win 2–3).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Union St. Gilloise than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Union St. Gilloise higher (47.6% vs model 36.3%, 11.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Union St. Gilloise win 2–3).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 05, 2026 · 19:30 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Charleroi 33.3% · Draw 30.3% · Union St. Gilloise 36.4%
    • xG · Charleroi 1.20 — Union St. Gilloise 1.11
  2. Sep 05, 2026 · 13:40 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Charleroi 3.67 · Draw 3.71 · Union St. Gilloise 2.03
    • Implied 1X2 · Charleroi 26.3% · Draw 26.1% · Union St. Gilloise 47.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 05, 2026 · 14:08 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Charleroi 3.67 · Draw 3.71 · Union St. Gilloise 2.03
    • Implied 1X2 · Charleroi 26.3% · Draw 26.1% · Union St. Gilloise 47.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 05, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Union St. Gilloise win · 2–3
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 43/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 02:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6145221

Closing Odds 2.03
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Union St. Gilloise win · Charleroi 2–3 Union St. Gilloise
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Jupiler Pro League
  • Fixture: Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-05 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Charleroi 1.2 — Union St. Gilloise 1.11 (total xG ≈ 2.31)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Jupiler Pro League Jupiler Pro League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Union St. Gilloise 7 6 1 0 19
2 Gent 7 6 1 0 19
3 Club Brugge KV 7 6 0 1 18
4 Charleroi 7 6 0 1 18
5 Anderlecht 7 4 1 2 13
6 Zulte Waregem 7 3 2 2 11
7 Standard Liege 7 3 2 2 11
8 KVC Westerlo 7 3 1 3 10
9 Waasland-beveren 7 3 0 4 9
10 Genk 7 2 3 2 9
11 St. Truiden 7 2 2 3 8
12 Lommel United 7 2 2 3 8
13 Antwerp 7 2 1 4 7
14 RAAL La Louvière 7 1 1 5 4
15 OH Leuven 7 1 1 5 4
16 Kortrijk 7 1 0 6 3
17 Cercle Brugge 7 0 3 4 3
18 KV Mechelen 7 0 3 4 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Union St. Gilloise 7 21 3 +18 19
2 Club Brugge KV 7 15 3 +12 18
3 Charleroi 7 15 7 +8 18
4 KVC Westerlo 7 15 16 -1 10
5 Gent 7 13 4 +9 19
6 Standard Liege 7 13 12 +1 11
7 Genk 7 13 12 +1 9
8 St. Truiden 7 12 12 0 8
9 Antwerp 7 11 15 -4 7
10 Zulte Waregem 7 10 7 +3 11
11 Cercle Brugge 7 8 14 -6 3
12 Anderlecht 7 7 5 +2 13
13 Waasland-beveren 7 7 11 -4 9
14 RAAL La Louvière 7 7 14 -7 4
15 Lommel United 7 6 8 -2 8
16 OH Leuven 7 5 13 -8 4
17 KV Mechelen 7 5 14 -9 3
18 Kortrijk 7 2 15 -13 3
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Genk 7 9.1 2.7 +6.4 9
2 Club Brugge KV 7 8.9 3.9 +5.0 18
3 Charleroi 7 7.5 3.1 +4.4 18
4 Union St. Gilloise 7 6.8 3.9 +2.9 19
5 Gent 7 4.9 2.0 +2.9 19
6 Anderlecht 7 5.5 3.0 +2.5 13
7 Zulte Waregem 7 6.8 4.9 +1.9 11
8 Lommel United 7 4.8 5.1 -0.3 8
9 Standard Liege 7 6.8 7.2 -0.4 11
10 St. Truiden 7 8.2 8.9 -0.7 8
11 KV Mechelen 7 5.4 6.4 -1.0 3
12 Cercle Brugge 7 8.1 9.3 -1.2 3
13 Antwerp 7 4.9 6.4 -1.5 7
14 RAAL La Louvière 7 4.5 7.5 -3.0 4
15 Kortrijk 7 3.5 7.6 -4.1 3
16 Waasland-beveren 7 5.7 9.9 -4.2 9
17 KVC Westerlo 7 4.4 8.9 -4.5 10
18 OH Leuven 7 4.8 10.1 -5.3 4