Prediction Audit: Kortrijk vs Charleroi Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Kortrijk

Aug 29, 2026 - 16:15

1 1.01

3 1.70

xG Accuracy: 70%

Charleroi

AI correctly predicted the Charleroi win.

The match finished 1–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Charleroi Charleroi ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Kortrijk	20.9%	24.6%	-3.7 pp	Aligned
Draw	27.0%	25.9%	+1.1 pp	Aligned
Charleroi	52.1%	49.5%	+2.6 pp	Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Charleroi win 1–3).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.71) — 4 goals materialised
Charleroi attacking xG significantly stronger (1.70 vs 1.01)
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Charleroi win 1–3).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 29, 2026 · 19:51 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Kortrijk 20.9% · Draw 27.0% · Charleroi 52.1%
- xG · Kortrijk 1.01 — Charleroi 1.70
Aug 29, 2026 · 15:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Kortrijk 3.92 · Draw 3.73 · Charleroi 1.95
- Implied 1X2 · Kortrijk 24.6% · Draw 25.9% · Charleroi 49.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 29, 2026 · 16:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Kortrijk 3.92 · Draw 3.73 · Charleroi 1.95
- Implied 1X2 · Kortrijk 24.6% · Draw 25.9% · Charleroi 49.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 29, 2026 · 16:15 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Charleroi win · 1–3
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

Moderate model lean
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Market Compatibility 81/100

Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 04:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5156321

Closing Odds 3.92

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Charleroi win · Kortrijk 1–3 Charleroi

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Jupiler Pro League
Fixture: Kortrijk vs Charleroi
Kickoff: 2026-08-29 16:15:00
1X2 (model): Home 0.0% · Draw 50.0% · Away 50.0%
xG (showing): Kortrijk 1.01 — Charleroi 1.7 (total xG ≈ 2.71)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Jupiler Pro League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Union St. Gilloise	6	5	1	0	16
2	Gent	5	5	0	0	15
3	Club Brugge KV	5	4	0	1	12
4	Charleroi	5	4	0	1	12
5	Zulte Waregem	5	3	2	0	11
6	Standard Liege	6	3	2	1	11
7	Anderlecht	6	3	1	2	10
8	Waasland-beveren	6	3	0	3	9
9	Genk	5	2	2	1	8
10	St. Truiden	6	2	2	2	8
11	Antwerp	5	2	1	2	7
12	Lommel United	6	2	1	3	7
13	KVC Westerlo	6	2	1	3	7
14	Cercle Brugge	6	0	3	3	3
15	KV Mechelen	6	0	2	4	2
16	RAAL La Louvière	5	0	1	4	1
17	OH Leuven	6	0	1	5	1
18	Kortrijk	5	0	0	5	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Union St. Gilloise	6	19	3	+16	16
2	KVC Westerlo	6	13	16	-3	7
3	Genk	5	12	8	+4	8
4	Standard Liege	6	12	10	+2	11
5	St. Truiden	6	12	10	+2	8
6	Charleroi	5	11	5	+6	12
7	Gent	5	10	2	+8	15
8	Zulte Waregem	5	10	3	+7	11
9	Antwerp	5	10	10	0	7
10	Club Brugge KV	5	9	2	+7	12
11	Waasland-beveren	6	7	10	-3	9
12	Lommel United	6	6	8	-2	7
13	Cercle Brugge	6	6	11	-5	3
14	KV Mechelen	6	5	14	-9	2
15	Anderlecht	6	4	5	-1	10
16	RAAL La Louvière	5	4	12	-8	1
17	OH Leuven	6	3	13	-10	1
18	Kortrijk	5	1	12	-11	0

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Genk	5	9.1	2.7	+6.4	8
2	Club Brugge KV	5	8.9	3.9	+5.0	12
3	Charleroi	5	7.5	3.1	+4.4	12
4	Union St. Gilloise	6	6.8	3.9	+2.9	16
5	Gent	5	4.9	2.0	+2.9	15
6	Anderlecht	6	5.5	3.0	+2.5	10
7	Zulte Waregem	5	6.8	4.9	+1.9	11
8	Lommel United	6	4.8	5.1	-0.3	7
9	Standard Liege	6	6.8	7.2	-0.4	11
10	St. Truiden	6	8.2	8.9	-0.7	8
11	KV Mechelen	6	5.4	6.4	-1.0	2
12	Cercle Brugge	6	8.1	9.3	-1.2	3
13	Antwerp	5	4.9	6.4	-1.5	7
14	RAAL La Louvière	5	4.5	7.5	-3.0	1
15	Kortrijk	5	3.5	7.6	-4.1	0
16	Waasland-beveren	6	5.7	9.9	-4.2	9
17	KVC Westerlo	6	4.4	8.9	-4.5	7
18	OH Leuven	6	4.8	10.1	-5.3	1