AI correctly predicted the Otrant-Olympic win.
The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Otrant-Olympic Otrant-Olympic ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal Tivat | 33.3% | 32.3% | +1.0 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 28.6% | +1.0 pp | Aligned |
| Otrant-Olympic | 37.1% | 39.1% | -2.0 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Otrant-Olympic win 1–2).
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Otrant-Olympic win 1–2).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 30, 2026 · 17:58 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Arsenal Tivat 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Otrant-Olympic 37.0%
- xG · Arsenal Tivat 1.26 — Otrant-Olympic 1.34
-
Aug 30, 2026 · 17:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Arsenal Tivat 2.77 · Draw 3.13 · Otrant-Olympic 2.29
- Implied 1X2 · Arsenal Tivat 32.3% · Draw 28.6% · Otrant-Olympic 39.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 30, 2026 · 17:58 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Arsenal Tivat 2.77 · Draw 3.13 · Otrant-Olympic 2.29
- Implied 1X2 · Arsenal Tivat 32.3% · Draw 28.6% · Otrant-Olympic 39.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 30, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Otrant-Olympic win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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First League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Otrant-Olympic | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 2 | Dečić | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 3 | Bokelj | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 4 | Buducnost Podgorica | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | Sutjeska | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Mornar | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Mladost DG | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 8 | Jezero | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 9 | Petrovac | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| 10 | Arsenal Tivat | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Otrant-Olympic | 9 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 16 |
| 2 | Buducnost Podgorica | 9 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 14 |
| 3 | Sutjeska | 9 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 14 |
| 4 | Dečić | 9 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 15 |
| 5 | Mornar | 9 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 13 |
| 6 | Jezero | 9 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 9 |
| 7 | Bokelj | 9 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 15 |
| 8 | Mladost DG | 9 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 10 |
| 9 | Petrovac | 9 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Arsenal Tivat | 9 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 7 |
