Prediction Audit: Glentoran BU W vs Riga W Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Glentoran BU W

Jul 22, 2026 - 12:00

1 1.30

4 1.30

xG Accuracy: 44%

Riga W

The model missed the final outcome (Riga W win 1–4).

The model had projected Glentoran BU W at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Glentoran BU W Riga W ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Glentoran BU W	35.2%	17.9%	+17.2 pp	Model Edge
Draw	29.6%	19.1%	+10.5 pp	Model Edge
Riga W	35.2%	62.9%	-27.7 pp	Market Higher

The closing market estimates Riga W's win probability at 62.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 27.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Riga W win 1–4.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
1X2: model leaned Glentoran BU W; match finished Riga W

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Glentoran BU W by 27.7 percentage points (62.9% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Jul 22, 2026 · 19:19 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Glentoran BU W 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Riga W 35.2%
- xG · Glentoran BU W 1.30 — Riga W 1.30
Jul 22, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Glentoran BU W 4.94 · Draw 4.63 · Riga W 1.41
- Implied 1X2 · Glentoran BU W 17.9% · Draw 19.1% · Riga W 62.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Jul 22, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Glentoran BU W 4.94 · Draw 4.63 · Riga W 1.41
- Implied 1X2 · Glentoran BU W 17.9% · Draw 19.1% · Riga W 62.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Jul 22, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Riga W win · 1–4
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (28 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market strongly disagrees on price
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Monitoring Confidence 13/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 29, 2026 · 19:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2416215

Closing Odds 1.41

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Riga W win · Glentoran BU W 1–4 Riga W

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: UEFA Women's Champions League
Fixture: Glentoran BU W vs Riga W
Kickoff: 2026-07-22 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 33.0% · Draw 33.0% · Away 33.0%
xG (showing): Glentoran BU W 1.3 — Riga W 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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