Predictions / Football / Poland. I Liga / Warta Poznań vs Puszcza Niepołomice

Prediction Audit: Warta Poznań vs Puszcza Niepołomice Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Warta Poznań Warta Poznań
Sep 18, 2026 - 16:00
3 1.13
2 1.47
xG Accuracy: 52%
Puszcza Niepołomice Puszcza Niepołomice

The model missed the final outcome (Warta Poznań win 3–2).

The model had projected Puszcza Niepołomice at 43.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Puszcza Niepołomice Warta Poznań ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Warta Poznań higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Warta Poznań -17.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Warta Poznań 27.5% 44.5% -17.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.1% 26.1% +3.0 pp Aligned
Puszcza Niepołomice 43.4% 29.4% +13.9 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Warta Poznań's win probability at 44.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 27.5%, a difference of 17.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Warta Poznań win 3–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Warta Poznań than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Puszcza Niepołomice by 17.0 percentage points (60.4% vs model 43.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 18, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Warta Poznań 27.5% · Draw 29.2% · Puszcza Niepołomice 43.3%
    • xG · Warta Poznań 1.13 — Puszcza Niepołomice 1.47
  2. Sep 18, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Warta Poznań 2.14 · Draw 3.65 · Puszcza Niepołomice 3.24
    • Implied 1X2 · Warta Poznań 44.5% · Draw 26.1% · Puszcza Niepołomice 29.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 18, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Warta Poznań 2.14 · Draw 3.65 · Puszcza Niepołomice 3.24
    • Implied 1X2 · Warta Poznań 44.5% · Draw 26.1% · Puszcza Niepołomice 29.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 18, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Warta Poznań win · 3–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (17 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 4/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 12, 2026 · 01:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8204280

Closing Odds 2.14
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Warta Poznań win · Warta Poznań 3–2 Puszcza Niepołomice
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: I Liga
  • Fixture: Warta Poznań vs Puszcza Niepołomice
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-18 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 27.5% · Draw 29.2% · Away 43.3%
  • xG (showing): Warta Poznań 1.13 — Puszcza Niepołomice 1.47 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Puszcza Niepołomice
  • Model: 43.3% · Implied: 29.4% · Probability edge: +13.9 pts · Est. EV: +6.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.7% · No 46.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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I Liga I Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 9 5 3 1 18
2 Nieciecza 9 5 1 3 16
3 Warta Poznań 9 5 0 4 15
4 ŁKS Łódź 9 4 3 2 15
5 Miedz Legnica 9 4 2 3 14
6 Polonia Warszawa 9 4 2 3 14
7 Stal Rzeszów 9 4 2 3 14
8 Lechia Gdansk 9 4 1 4 13
9 Chrobry Głogów 9 3 3 3 12
10 Pogoń Siedlce 8 3 3 2 12
11 Ruch Chorzów 9 3 3 3 12
12 Arka Gdynia 9 3 2 4 11
13 Unia Skierniewice 9 3 1 5 10
14 Odra Opole 9 2 3 4 9
15 Polonia Bytom 9 1 6 2 9
16 Stal Mielec 9 2 3 4 9
17 Podbeskidzie 9 0 8 1 8
18 Puszcza Niepołomice 8 2 0 6 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Warta Poznań 9 17 13 +4 15
2 Lechia Gdansk 9 17 15 +2 13
3 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 9 15 8 +7 18
4 Polonia Warszawa 9 15 12 +3 14
5 Miedz Legnica 9 14 9 +5 14
6 Nieciecza 9 14 12 +2 16
7 Polonia Bytom 9 14 17 -3 9
8 Stal Mielec 9 14 23 -9 9
9 ŁKS Łódź 9 13 9 +4 15
10 Podbeskidzie 9 12 14 -2 8
11 Chrobry Głogów 9 11 8 +3 12
12 Arka Gdynia 9 11 11 0 11
13 Stal Rzeszów 9 10 15 -5 14
14 Unia Skierniewice 9 10 15 -5 10
15 Pogoń Siedlce 8 9 7 +2 12
16 Ruch Chorzów 9 9 11 -2 12
17 Puszcza Niepołomice 8 8 12 -4 6
18 Odra Opole 9 7 9 -2 9