Prediction Audit: Puszcza Niepołomice vs ŁKS Łódź Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Puszcza Niepołomice

Sep 11, 2026 - 18:45

1 1.33

2 1.27

xG Accuracy: 75%

ŁKS Łódź

The model missed the final outcome (ŁKS Łódź win 1–2).

The model had projected Puszcza Niepołomice at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Puszcza Niepołomice ŁKS Łódź ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Puszcza Niepołomice	36.6%	31.1%	+5.5 pp	Model Higher
Draw	29.6%	28.8%	+0.8 pp	Aligned
ŁKS Łódź	33.8%	40.1%	-6.3 pp	Market Higher

The closing market estimates ŁKS Łódź's win probability at 40.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 6.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was ŁKS Łódź win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on ŁKS Łódź. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
1X2: model leaned Puszcza Niepołomice; match finished ŁKS Łódź

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Puszcza Niepołomice by 6.3 percentage points (42.9% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 11, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Puszcza Niepołomice 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · ŁKS Łódź 33.8%
- xG · Puszcza Niepołomice 1.33 — ŁKS Łódź 1.27
Sep 11, 2026 · 18:15 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Puszcza Niepołomice 3.07 · Draw 3.31 · ŁKS Łódź 2.38
- Implied 1X2 · Puszcza Niepołomice 31.1% · Draw 28.8% · ŁKS Łódź 40.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 11, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Puszcza Niepołomice 3.07 · Draw 3.31 · ŁKS Łódź 2.38
- Implied 1X2 · Puszcza Niepołomice 31.1% · Draw 28.8% · ŁKS Łódź 40.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 11, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result ŁKS Łódź win · 1–2
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 23/100

Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 05, 2026 · 02:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7040559

Closing Odds 2.38

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result ŁKS Łódź win · Puszcza Niepołomice 1–2 ŁKS Łódź

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: I Liga
Fixture: Puszcza Niepołomice vs ŁKS Łódź
Kickoff: 2026-09-11 18:45:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
xG (showing): Puszcza Niepołomice 1.33 — ŁKS Łódź 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.1%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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I Liga — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	9	5	3	1	18
2	Nieciecza	9	5	1	3	16
3	Warta Poznań	9	5	0	4	15
4	ŁKS Łódź	9	4	3	2	15
5	Miedz Legnica	9	4	2	3	14
6	Polonia Warszawa	9	4	2	3	14
7	Stal Rzeszów	9	4	2	3	14
8	Lechia Gdansk	9	4	1	4	13
9	Chrobry Głogów	9	3	3	3	12
10	Pogoń Siedlce	8	3	3	2	12
11	Ruch Chorzów	9	3	3	3	12
12	Arka Gdynia	9	3	2	4	11
13	Unia Skierniewice	9	3	1	5	10
14	Odra Opole	9	2	3	4	9
15	Polonia Bytom	9	1	6	2	9
16	Stal Mielec	9	2	3	4	9
17	Podbeskidzie	9	0	8	1	8
18	Puszcza Niepołomice	8	2	0	6	6

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Warta Poznań	9	17	13	+4	15
2	Lechia Gdansk	9	17	15	+2	13
3	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	9	15	8	+7	18
4	Polonia Warszawa	9	15	12	+3	14
5	Miedz Legnica	9	14	9	+5	14
6	Nieciecza	9	14	12	+2	16
7	Polonia Bytom	9	14	17	-3	9
8	Stal Mielec	9	14	23	-9	9
9	ŁKS Łódź	9	13	9	+4	15
10	Podbeskidzie	9	12	14	-2	8
11	Chrobry Głogów	9	11	8	+3	12
12	Arka Gdynia	9	11	11	0	11
13	Stal Rzeszów	9	10	15	-5	14
14	Unia Skierniewice	9	10	15	-5	10
15	Pogoń Siedlce	8	9	7	+2	12
16	Ruch Chorzów	9	9	11	-2	12
17	Puszcza Niepołomice	8	8	12	-4	6
18	Odra Opole	9	7	9	-2	9