Predictions / Football / Poland. I Liga / Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Rzeszów

Prediction Audit: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Rzeszów Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Aug 14, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 85%
Stal Rzeszów Stal Rzeszów

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki -16.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 36.1% 52.5% -16.4 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 23.8% +5.8 pp Model Higher
Stal Rzeszów 34.2% 23.7% +10.5 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki's win probability at 52.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 16.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki by 16.4 percentage points (52.5% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 14, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Stal Rzeszów 34.2%
    • xG · Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1.32 — Stal Rzeszów 1.28
  2. Aug 14, 2026 · 15:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1.81 · Draw 3.99 · Stal Rzeszów 4.00
    • Implied 1X2 · Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 52.5% · Draw 23.8% · Stal Rzeszów 23.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 14, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1.81 · Draw 3.99 · Stal Rzeszów 4.00
    • Implied 1X2 · Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 52.5% · Draw 23.8% · Stal Rzeszów 23.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 14, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (16 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 18/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 08, 2026 · 01:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3228016

Closing Odds 1.81
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1–1 Stal Rzeszów
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: I Liga
  • Fixture: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Rzeszów
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-14 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1.32 — Stal Rzeszów 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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I Liga I Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 9 5 3 1 18
2 Nieciecza 9 5 1 3 16
3 Warta Poznań 9 5 0 4 15
4 ŁKS Łódź 9 4 3 2 15
5 Miedz Legnica 9 4 2 3 14
6 Polonia Warszawa 9 4 2 3 14
7 Stal Rzeszów 9 4 2 3 14
8 Lechia Gdansk 9 4 1 4 13
9 Chrobry Głogów 9 3 3 3 12
10 Pogoń Siedlce 8 3 3 2 12
11 Ruch Chorzów 9 3 3 3 12
12 Arka Gdynia 9 3 2 4 11
13 Unia Skierniewice 9 3 1 5 10
14 Odra Opole 9 2 3 4 9
15 Polonia Bytom 9 1 6 2 9
16 Stal Mielec 9 2 3 4 9
17 Podbeskidzie 9 0 8 1 8
18 Puszcza Niepołomice 8 2 0 6 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Warta Poznań 9 17 13 +4 15
2 Lechia Gdansk 9 17 15 +2 13
3 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 9 15 8 +7 18
4 Polonia Warszawa 9 15 12 +3 14
5 Miedz Legnica 9 14 9 +5 14
6 Nieciecza 9 14 12 +2 16
7 Polonia Bytom 9 14 17 -3 9
8 Stal Mielec 9 14 23 -9 9
9 ŁKS Łódź 9 13 9 +4 15
10 Podbeskidzie 9 12 14 -2 8
11 Chrobry Głogów 9 11 8 +3 12
12 Arka Gdynia 9 11 11 0 11
13 Stal Rzeszów 9 10 15 -5 14
14 Unia Skierniewice 9 10 15 -5 10
15 Pogoń Siedlce 8 9 7 +2 12
16 Ruch Chorzów 9 9 11 -2 12
17 Puszcza Niepołomice 8 8 12 -4 6
18 Odra Opole 9 7 9 -2 9