Predictions / Football / Poland. I Liga / Unia Skierniewice vs Arka Gdynia

Prediction Audit: Unia Skierniewice vs Arka Gdynia Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Unia Skierniewice Unia Skierniewice
Aug 10, 2026 - 17:00
2 1.20
0 1.40
xG Accuracy: 55%
Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia

The model missed the final outcome (Unia Skierniewice win 2–0).

The model had projected Arka Gdynia at 39.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Arka Gdynia Unia Skierniewice ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Arka Gdynia higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Arka Gdynia -8.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Unia Skierniewice 30.6% 26.9% +3.7 pp Aligned
Draw 29.5% 25.1% +4.3 pp Aligned
Arka Gdynia 39.9% 48.0% -8.1 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Arka Gdynia's win probability at 48.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.9%, a difference of 8.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Unia Skierniewice win 2–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Arka Gdynia. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Arka Gdynia; match finished Unia Skierniewice

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Arka Gdynia by 8.1 percentage points (48.0% vs model 39.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 10, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Unia Skierniewice 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · Arka Gdynia 40.0%
    • xG · Unia Skierniewice 1.20 — Arka Gdynia 1.40
  2. Aug 10, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Unia Skierniewice 3.41 · Draw 3.58 · Arka Gdynia 2.09
    • Implied 1X2 · Unia Skierniewice 27.9% · Draw 26.6% · Arka Gdynia 45.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 10, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Unia Skierniewice 3.54 · Draw 3.78 · Arka Gdynia 1.98
    • Implied 1X2 · Unia Skierniewice 26.9% · Draw 25.1% · Arka Gdynia 48.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 10, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Unia Skierniewice win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 59/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 02:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2972410

Closing Odds 1.98
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Unia Skierniewice win · Unia Skierniewice 2–0 Arka Gdynia
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: I Liga
  • Fixture: Unia Skierniewice vs Arka Gdynia
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-10 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · Away 40.0%
  • xG (showing): Unia Skierniewice 1.2 — Arka Gdynia 1.4 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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I Liga I Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 9 5 3 1 18
2 Nieciecza 9 5 1 3 16
3 Warta Poznań 9 5 0 4 15
4 ŁKS Łódź 9 4 3 2 15
5 Miedz Legnica 9 4 2 3 14
6 Polonia Warszawa 9 4 2 3 14
7 Stal Rzeszów 9 4 2 3 14
8 Lechia Gdansk 9 4 1 4 13
9 Chrobry Głogów 9 3 3 3 12
10 Pogoń Siedlce 8 3 3 2 12
11 Ruch Chorzów 9 3 3 3 12
12 Arka Gdynia 9 3 2 4 11
13 Unia Skierniewice 9 3 1 5 10
14 Odra Opole 9 2 3 4 9
15 Polonia Bytom 9 1 6 2 9
16 Stal Mielec 9 2 3 4 9
17 Podbeskidzie 9 0 8 1 8
18 Puszcza Niepołomice 8 2 0 6 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Warta Poznań 9 17 13 +4 15
2 Lechia Gdansk 9 17 15 +2 13
3 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 9 15 8 +7 18
4 Polonia Warszawa 9 15 12 +3 14
5 Miedz Legnica 9 14 9 +5 14
6 Nieciecza 9 14 12 +2 16
7 Polonia Bytom 9 14 17 -3 9
8 Stal Mielec 9 14 23 -9 9
9 ŁKS Łódź 9 13 9 +4 15
10 Podbeskidzie 9 12 14 -2 8
11 Chrobry Głogów 9 11 8 +3 12
12 Arka Gdynia 9 11 11 0 11
13 Stal Rzeszów 9 10 15 -5 14
14 Unia Skierniewice 9 10 15 -5 10
15 Pogoń Siedlce 8 9 7 +2 12
16 Ruch Chorzów 9 9 11 -2 12
17 Puszcza Niepołomice 8 8 12 -4 6
18 Odra Opole 9 7 9 -2 9