Prediction Audit: Lechia Gdansk vs Warta Poznań Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Lechia Gdansk

Jul 31, 2026 - 18:30

0 1.46

3 1.14

xG Accuracy: 40%

Warta Poznań

The model missed the final outcome (Warta Poznań win 0–3).

The model had projected Lechia Gdansk at 42.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Lechia Gdansk Warta Poznań ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Lechia Gdansk	42.9%	37.5%	+5.4 pp	Model Higher
Draw	29.2%	24.9%	+4.3 pp	Aligned
Warta Poznań	27.9%	37.6%	-9.7 pp	Market Higher

The closing market estimates Warta Poznań's win probability at 37.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 27.9%, a difference of 9.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Warta Poznań win 0–3.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Warta Poznań. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Lechia Gdansk by 9.7 percentage points (52.6% vs model 42.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Jul 31, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Lechia Gdansk 42.9% · Draw 29.2% · Warta Poznań 27.9%
- xG · Lechia Gdansk 1.46 — Warta Poznań 1.14
Jul 31, 2026 · 18:04 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Lechia Gdansk 2.54 · Draw 3.83 · Warta Poznań 2.53
- Implied 1X2 · Lechia Gdansk 37.5% · Draw 24.9% · Warta Poznań 37.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Jul 31, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Lechia Gdansk 2.54 · Draw 3.83 · Warta Poznań 2.53
- Implied 1X2 · Lechia Gdansk 37.5% · Draw 24.9% · Warta Poznań 37.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Jul 31, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Warta Poznań win · 0–3
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 17/100

Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 04:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1677347

Closing Odds 2.53

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Warta Poznań win · Lechia Gdansk 0–3 Warta Poznań

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: I Liga
Fixture: Lechia Gdansk vs Warta Poznań
Kickoff: 2026-07-31 18:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 42.9% · Draw 29.2% · Away 27.9%
xG (showing): Lechia Gdansk 1.46 — Warta Poznań 1.14 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.9%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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I Liga — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	9	5	3	1	18
2	Nieciecza	9	5	1	3	16
3	Warta Poznań	9	5	0	4	15
4	ŁKS Łódź	9	4	3	2	15
5	Miedz Legnica	9	4	2	3	14
6	Polonia Warszawa	9	4	2	3	14
7	Stal Rzeszów	9	4	2	3	14
8	Lechia Gdansk	9	4	1	4	13
9	Chrobry Głogów	9	3	3	3	12
10	Pogoń Siedlce	8	3	3	2	12
11	Ruch Chorzów	9	3	3	3	12
12	Arka Gdynia	9	3	2	4	11
13	Unia Skierniewice	9	3	1	5	10
14	Odra Opole	9	2	3	4	9
15	Polonia Bytom	9	1	6	2	9
16	Stal Mielec	9	2	3	4	9
17	Podbeskidzie	9	0	8	1	8
18	Puszcza Niepołomice	8	2	0	6	6

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Warta Poznań	9	17	13	+4	15
2	Lechia Gdansk	9	17	15	+2	13
3	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	9	15	8	+7	18
4	Polonia Warszawa	9	15	12	+3	14
5	Miedz Legnica	9	14	9	+5	14
6	Nieciecza	9	14	12	+2	16
7	Polonia Bytom	9	14	17	-3	9
8	Stal Mielec	9	14	23	-9	9
9	ŁKS Łódź	9	13	9	+4	15
10	Podbeskidzie	9	12	14	-2	8
11	Chrobry Głogów	9	11	8	+3	12
12	Arka Gdynia	9	11	11	0	11
13	Stal Rzeszów	9	10	15	-5	14
14	Unia Skierniewice	9	10	15	-5	10
15	Pogoń Siedlce	8	9	7	+2	12
16	Ruch Chorzów	9	9	11	-2	12
17	Puszcza Niepołomice	8	8	12	-4	6
18	Odra Opole	9	7	9	-2	9