Predictions / Football / Poland. I Liga / Arka Gdynia vs Stal Rzeszów

Prediction Audit: Arka Gdynia vs Stal Rzeszów Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia
Aug 01, 2026 - 13:30
4 1.51
0 1.09
xG Accuracy: 37%
Stal Rzeszów Stal Rzeszów

AI correctly predicted the Arka Gdynia win.

The match finished 4–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 4-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Arka Gdynia higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Arka Gdynia -9.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Arka Gdynia 45.3% 54.5% -9.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 28.9% 23.5% +5.4 pp Model Higher
Stal Rzeszów 25.8% 22.1% +3.7 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Arka Gdynia's win probability at 54.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 45.3%, a difference of 9.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Arka Gdynia win 4–0).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Arka Gdynia. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Arka Gdynia attacking xG significantly stronger (1.51 vs 1.09)

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Arka Gdynia higher (54.5% vs model 45.3%, 9.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Arka Gdynia win 4–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 01, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Arka Gdynia 45.3% · Draw 28.9% · Stal Rzeszów 25.8%
    • xG · Arka Gdynia 1.51 — Stal Rzeszów 1.09
  2. Aug 01, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Arka Gdynia 1.74 · Draw 4.04 · Stal Rzeszów 4.30
    • Implied 1X2 · Arka Gdynia 54.5% · Draw 23.5% · Stal Rzeszów 22.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 01, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Arka Gdynia 1.74 · Draw 4.04 · Stal Rzeszów 4.30
    • Implied 1X2 · Arka Gdynia 54.5% · Draw 23.5% · Stal Rzeszów 22.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 01, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Arka Gdynia win · 4–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 54/100
Betting Confidence 77/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 02:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1804834

Closing Odds 1.74
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Arka Gdynia win · Arka Gdynia 4–0 Stal Rzeszów
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: I Liga
  • Fixture: Arka Gdynia vs Stal Rzeszów
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-01 13:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.3% · Draw 28.9% · Away 25.8%
  • xG (showing): Arka Gdynia 1.51 — Stal Rzeszów 1.09 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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I Liga I Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 9 5 3 1 18
2 Nieciecza 9 5 1 3 16
3 Warta Poznań 9 5 0 4 15
4 ŁKS Łódź 9 4 3 2 15
5 Miedz Legnica 9 4 2 3 14
6 Polonia Warszawa 9 4 2 3 14
7 Stal Rzeszów 9 4 2 3 14
8 Lechia Gdansk 9 4 1 4 13
9 Chrobry Głogów 9 3 3 3 12
10 Pogoń Siedlce 8 3 3 2 12
11 Ruch Chorzów 9 3 3 3 12
12 Arka Gdynia 9 3 2 4 11
13 Unia Skierniewice 9 3 1 5 10
14 Odra Opole 9 2 3 4 9
15 Polonia Bytom 9 1 6 2 9
16 Stal Mielec 9 2 3 4 9
17 Podbeskidzie 9 0 8 1 8
18 Puszcza Niepołomice 8 2 0 6 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Warta Poznań 9 17 13 +4 15
2 Lechia Gdansk 9 17 15 +2 13
3 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 9 15 8 +7 18
4 Polonia Warszawa 9 15 12 +3 14
5 Miedz Legnica 9 14 9 +5 14
6 Nieciecza 9 14 12 +2 16
7 Polonia Bytom 9 14 17 -3 9
8 Stal Mielec 9 14 23 -9 9
9 ŁKS Łódź 9 13 9 +4 15
10 Podbeskidzie 9 12 14 -2 8
11 Chrobry Głogów 9 11 8 +3 12
12 Arka Gdynia 9 11 11 0 11
13 Stal Rzeszów 9 10 15 -5 14
14 Unia Skierniewice 9 10 15 -5 10
15 Pogoń Siedlce 8 9 7 +2 12
16 Ruch Chorzów 9 9 11 -2 12
17 Puszcza Niepołomice 8 8 12 -4 6
18 Odra Opole 9 7 9 -2 9