Predictions / Football / Poland. I Liga / Unia Skierniewice vs Stal Mielec

Prediction Audit: Unia Skierniewice vs Stal Mielec Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Unia Skierniewice Unia Skierniewice
Jul 26, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.29
2 1.31
xG Accuracy: 76%
Stal Mielec Stal Mielec

The model missed the final outcome (Stal Mielec win 1–2).

The model had projected Unia Skierniewice at 37.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Unia Skierniewice Stal Mielec ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Unia Skierniewice higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Unia Skierniewice -6.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Unia Skierniewice 37.0% 42.9% -6.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 28.8% 26.5% +2.3 pp Aligned
Stal Mielec 34.2% 30.5% +3.7 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Unia Skierniewice's win probability at 42.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.0%, a difference of 6.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Stal Mielec win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Unia Skierniewice. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Unia Skierniewice; match finished Stal Mielec

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Unia Skierniewice by 6.0 percentage points (43.0% vs model 37.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 26, 2026 · 19:55 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Unia Skierniewice 36.9% · Draw 28.8% · Stal Mielec 34.3%
    • xG · Unia Skierniewice 1.29 — Stal Mielec 1.31
  2. Jul 26, 2026 · 14:35 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Unia Skierniewice 2.22 · Draw 3.59 · Stal Mielec 3.12
    • Implied 1X2 · Unia Skierniewice 42.9% · Draw 26.5% · Stal Mielec 30.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 26, 2026 · 14:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Unia Skierniewice 2.22 · Draw 3.59 · Stal Mielec 3.12
    • Implied 1X2 · Unia Skierniewice 42.9% · Draw 26.5% · Stal Mielec 30.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 26, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Stal Mielec win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 70/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1454330

Closing Odds 2.22
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Stal Mielec win · Unia Skierniewice 1–2 Stal Mielec
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: I Liga
  • Fixture: Unia Skierniewice vs Stal Mielec
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-26 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.0% · Draw 33.0% · Away 33.0%
  • xG (showing): Unia Skierniewice 1.29 — Stal Mielec 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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I Liga I Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 9 5 3 1 18
2 Nieciecza 9 5 1 3 16
3 Warta Poznań 9 5 0 4 15
4 ŁKS Łódź 9 4 3 2 15
5 Miedz Legnica 9 4 2 3 14
6 Polonia Warszawa 9 4 2 3 14
7 Stal Rzeszów 9 4 2 3 14
8 Lechia Gdansk 9 4 1 4 13
9 Chrobry Głogów 9 3 3 3 12
10 Pogoń Siedlce 8 3 3 2 12
11 Ruch Chorzów 9 3 3 3 12
12 Arka Gdynia 9 3 2 4 11
13 Unia Skierniewice 9 3 1 5 10
14 Odra Opole 9 2 3 4 9
15 Polonia Bytom 9 1 6 2 9
16 Stal Mielec 9 2 3 4 9
17 Podbeskidzie 9 0 8 1 8
18 Puszcza Niepołomice 8 2 0 6 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Warta Poznań 9 17 13 +4 15
2 Lechia Gdansk 9 17 15 +2 13
3 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 9 15 8 +7 18
4 Polonia Warszawa 9 15 12 +3 14
5 Miedz Legnica 9 14 9 +5 14
6 Nieciecza 9 14 12 +2 16
7 Polonia Bytom 9 14 17 -3 9
8 Stal Mielec 9 14 23 -9 9
9 ŁKS Łódź 9 13 9 +4 15
10 Podbeskidzie 9 12 14 -2 8
11 Chrobry Głogów 9 11 8 +3 12
12 Arka Gdynia 9 11 11 0 11
13 Stal Rzeszów 9 10 15 -5 14
14 Unia Skierniewice 9 10 15 -5 10
15 Pogoń Siedlce 8 9 7 +2 12
16 Ruch Chorzów 9 9 11 -2 12
17 Puszcza Niepołomice 8 8 12 -4 6
18 Odra Opole 9 7 9 -2 9