Predictions / Football / Slovenia. 1. SNL / Brinje-Grosuplje vs Nafta

Prediction Audit: Brinje-Grosuplje vs Nafta Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Brinje-Grosuplje Brinje-Grosuplje
Sep 11, 2026 - 18:15
1 1.35
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 74%
Nafta Nafta

The model missed the final outcome (Nafta win 1–2).

The model had projected Brinje-Grosuplje at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Brinje-Grosuplje Nafta ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Brinje-Grosuplje -3.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Brinje-Grosuplje 37.5% 41.3% -3.7 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 26.1% +3.5 pp Aligned
Nafta 32.9% 32.7% +0.2 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Nafta win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The full-time result was Nafta win 1–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 11, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Brinje-Grosuplje 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Nafta 32.9%
    • xG · Brinje-Grosuplje 1.35 — Nafta 1.25
  2. Sep 11, 2026 · 17:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Brinje-Grosuplje 2.31 · Draw 3.66 · Nafta 2.92
    • Implied 1X2 · Brinje-Grosuplje 41.3% · Draw 26.1% · Nafta 32.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 11, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Brinje-Grosuplje 2.31 · Draw 3.66 · Nafta 2.92
    • Implied 1X2 · Brinje-Grosuplje 41.3% · Draw 26.1% · Nafta 32.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 11, 2026 · 18:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Nafta win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 81/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 05, 2026 · 02:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7039630

Closing Odds 2.31
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Nafta win · Brinje-Grosuplje 1–2 Nafta
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 1. SNL
  • Fixture: Brinje-Grosuplje vs Nafta
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-11 18:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Brinje-Grosuplje 1.35 — Nafta 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 46.4% · Probability edge: +5.4 pts · Est. EV: +10.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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1. SNL 1. SNL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Maribor 10 5 5 0 20
2 Koper 10 5 3 2 18
3 Bravo 10 5 3 2 18
4 Olimpija Ljubljana 10 4 2 4 14
5 Aluminij 10 3 4 3 13
6 Nafta 10 4 1 5 13
7 Celje 9 3 3 3 12
8 Brinje-Grosuplje 10 3 2 5 11
9 Mura 10 2 3 5 9
10 Radomlje 9 1 2 6 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Maribor 10 19 8 +11 20
2 Nafta 10 17 16 +1 13
3 Aluminij 10 16 11 +5 13
4 Brinje-Grosuplje 10 14 18 -4 11
5 Bravo 10 12 10 +2 18
6 Koper 10 11 8 +3 18
7 Celje 9 11 11 0 12
8 Olimpija Ljubljana 10 10 8 +2 14
9 Mura 10 10 21 -11 9
10 Radomlje 9 9 18 -9 5