The model missed the final outcome (Nafta win 3–1).
The model had projected Radomlje at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Radomlje Nafta ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nafta | 32.9% | 41.6% | -8.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.9% | +4.7 pp | Aligned |
| Radomlje | 37.5% | 33.5% | +4.0 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Nafta's win probability at 41.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 8.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Nafta win 3–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Nafta. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Radomlje; match finished Nafta
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Radomlje by 8.7 percentage points (46.2% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Nafta 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Radomlje 37.6%
- xG · Nafta 1.25 — Radomlje 1.35
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 17:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Nafta 2.29 · Draw 3.83 · Radomlje 2.84
- Implied 1X2 · Nafta 41.6% · Draw 24.9% · Radomlje 33.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Nafta 2.29 · Draw 3.83 · Radomlje 2.84
- Implied 1X2 · Nafta 41.6% · Draw 24.9% · Radomlje 33.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 18:15 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Nafta win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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1. SNL — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maribor | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 20 |
| 2 | Koper | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 3 | Bravo | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 4 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 5 | Aluminij | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Nafta | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 7 | Celje | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Brinje-Grosuplje | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 9 | Mura | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 10 | Radomlje | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maribor | 10 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 20 |
| 2 | Nafta | 10 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 13 |
| 3 | Aluminij | 10 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 13 |
| 4 | Brinje-Grosuplje | 10 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 11 |
| 5 | Bravo | 10 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 18 |
| 6 | Koper | 10 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 18 |
| 7 | Celje | 9 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 12 |
| 8 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 10 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 14 |
| 9 | Mura | 10 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 9 |
| 10 | Radomlje | 9 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 5 |
