Predictions / Football / Israel. Toto Cup Ligat Al / Hapoel Haifa vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona

Prediction Audit: Hapoel Haifa vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Hapoel Haifa Hapoel Haifa
Aug 08, 2026 - 17:30
1 1.32
3 1.28
xG Accuracy: 57%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona Ironi Kiryat Shmona

The model missed the final outcome (Ironi Kiryat Shmona win 1–3).

The model had projected Hapoel Haifa at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Hapoel Haifa Ironi Kiryat Shmona ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Ironi Kiryat Shmona -2.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Hapoel Haifa 36.1% 34.9% +1.2 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 28.6% +1.1 pp Aligned
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 34.2% 36.5% -2.2 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Ironi Kiryat Shmona win 1–3.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Hapoel Haifa; match finished Ironi Kiryat Shmona

Market lesson

The full-time result was Ironi Kiryat Shmona win 1–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 08, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Hapoel Haifa 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Ironi Kiryat Shmona 34.2%
    • xG · Hapoel Haifa 1.32 — Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1.28
  2. Aug 08, 2026 · 17:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Hapoel Haifa 2.62 · Draw 3.20 · Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2.51
    • Implied 1X2 · Hapoel Haifa 34.9% · Draw 28.6% · Ironi Kiryat Shmona 36.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 08, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Hapoel Haifa 2.62 · Draw 3.20 · Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2.51
    • Implied 1X2 · Hapoel Haifa 34.9% · Draw 28.6% · Ironi Kiryat Shmona 36.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 08, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Ironi Kiryat Shmona win · 1–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 30/100
Monitoring Confidence 35/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 02:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2827485

Closing Odds 2.51
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Ironi Kiryat Shmona win · Hapoel Haifa 1–3 Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Toto Cup Ligat Al
  • Fixture: Hapoel Haifa vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-08 17:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Hapoel Haifa 1.32 — Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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