Predictions / Football / Israel. Toto Cup Ligat Al / Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Bnei Sakhnin

Prediction Audit: Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Bnei Sakhnin Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Ironi Kiryat Shmona Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Aug 04, 2026 - 16:45
1 1.32
0 1.28
xG Accuracy: 64%
Bnei Sakhnin Bnei Sakhnin

AI correctly predicted the Ironi Kiryat Shmona win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Ironi Kiryat Shmona Ironi Kiryat Shmona ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Ironi Kiryat Shmona higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Ironi Kiryat Shmona -13.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 36.1% 49.8% -13.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 26.7% +3.0 pp Aligned
Bnei Sakhnin 34.2% 23.5% +10.7 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Ironi Kiryat Shmona's win probability at 49.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 13.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Ironi Kiryat Shmona win 1–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Ironi Kiryat Shmona than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Ironi Kiryat Shmona higher (49.8% vs model 36.1%, 13.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Ironi Kiryat Shmona win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 04, 2026 · 16:44 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Ironi Kiryat Shmona 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Bnei Sakhnin 34.2%
    • xG · Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1.32 — Bnei Sakhnin 1.28
  2. Aug 04, 2026 · 16:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1.84 · Draw 3.43 · Bnei Sakhnin 3.89
    • Implied 1X2 · Ironi Kiryat Shmona 49.8% · Draw 26.7% · Bnei Sakhnin 23.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 04, 2026 · 16:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1.84 · Draw 3.43 · Bnei Sakhnin 3.89
    • Implied 1X2 · Ironi Kiryat Shmona 49.8% · Draw 26.7% · Bnei Sakhnin 23.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 04, 2026 · 16:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Ironi Kiryat Shmona win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (14 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 31/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 29, 2026 · 10:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2361307

Closing Odds 1.84
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Ironi Kiryat Shmona win · Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1–0 Bnei Sakhnin
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Toto Cup Ligat Al
  • Fixture: Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Bnei Sakhnin
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-04 16:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1.32 — Bnei Sakhnin 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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