Predictions / Football / Scotland. League Two / Annan Athletic vs Dumbarton

Prediction Audit: Annan Athletic vs Dumbarton Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Annan Athletic Annan Athletic
Aug 29, 2026 - 14:00
2 1.40
0 1.20
xG Accuracy: 61%
Dumbarton Dumbarton

AI correctly predicted the Annan Athletic win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Annan Athletic Annan Athletic ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Annan Athletic win 2–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 29, 2026 · 13:39 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Annan Athletic 1.40 — Dumbarton 1.20
  2. Aug 29, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Annan Athletic win · 2–0
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 02:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5138525

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Annan Athletic win · Annan Athletic 2–0 Dumbarton
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: League Two
  • Fixture: Annan Athletic vs Dumbarton
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-29 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 30.6%
  • xG (showing): Annan Athletic 1.4 — Dumbarton 1.2 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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League Two League Two — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Clyde 8 5 2 1 17
2 Stranraer 8 5 1 2 16
3 Spartans 8 3 3 2 12
4 Elgin City 8 3 2 3 11
5 Forfar Athletic 8 3 2 3 11
6 Edinburgh City 8 4 2 2 9
7 Annan Athletic 8 3 0 5 9
8 Dumbarton 8 3 0 5 9
9 Kelty Hearts 8 3 0 5 9
10 Stirling Albion 8 1 2 5 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Clyde 8 19 10 +9 17
2 Elgin City 8 19 14 +5 11
3 Spartans 8 19 15 +4 12
4 Edinburgh City 8 19 15 +4 9
5 Stranraer 8 17 8 +9 16
6 Kelty Hearts 8 11 18 -7 9
7 Stirling Albion 8 10 22 -12 5
8 Annan Athletic 8 9 10 -1 9
9 Forfar Athletic 8 8 13 -5 11
10 Dumbarton 8 8 14 -6 9
League Two Scotland. League Two Predictions