Predictions / Football / Scotland. League Two / Edinburgh City vs Annan Athletic

Prediction Audit: Edinburgh City vs Annan Athletic Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Edinburgh City Edinburgh City
Aug 22, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.24
0 1.36
xG Accuracy: 64%
Annan Athletic Annan Athletic

The model missed the final outcome (Edinburgh City win 1–0).

The model had projected Annan Athletic at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Annan Athletic Edinburgh City ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Annan Athletic; match finished Edinburgh City

Market lesson

The full-time result was Edinburgh City win 1–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 16, 2026 · 01:54 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Edinburgh City 1.24 — Annan Athletic 1.36
  2. Aug 22, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Edinburgh City win · 1–0
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 01:54 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4225090

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Edinburgh City win · Edinburgh City 1–0 Annan Athletic
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: League Two
  • Fixture: Edinburgh City vs Annan Athletic
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-22 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.0%
  • xG (showing): Edinburgh City 1.24 — Annan Athletic 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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League Two League Two — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Clyde 8 5 2 1 17
2 Stranraer 8 5 1 2 16
3 Spartans 8 3 3 2 12
4 Elgin City 8 3 2 3 11
5 Forfar Athletic 8 3 2 3 11
6 Edinburgh City 8 4 2 2 9
7 Annan Athletic 8 3 0 5 9
8 Dumbarton 8 3 0 5 9
9 Kelty Hearts 8 3 0 5 9
10 Stirling Albion 8 1 2 5 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Clyde 8 19 10 +9 17
2 Elgin City 8 19 14 +5 11
3 Spartans 8 19 15 +4 12
4 Edinburgh City 8 19 15 +4 9
5 Stranraer 8 17 8 +9 16
6 Kelty Hearts 8 11 18 -7 9
7 Stirling Albion 8 10 22 -12 5
8 Annan Athletic 8 9 10 -1 9
9 Forfar Athletic 8 8 13 -5 11
10 Dumbarton 8 8 14 -6 9
League Two Scotland. League Two Predictions