The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected OH Leuven W at 44.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 OH Leuven W Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OH Leuven W | 44.3% | 42.6% | +1.7 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.0% | 26.0% | +3.1 pp | Aligned |
| Club Brugge W | 26.6% | 31.4% | -4.8 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned OH Leuven W; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · OH Leuven W 44.3% · Draw 29.0% · Club Brugge W 26.7%
- xG · OH Leuven W 1.49 — Club Brugge W 1.11
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 17:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · OH Leuven W 2.07 · Draw 3.40 · Club Brugge W 2.81
- Implied 1X2 · OH Leuven W 42.6% · Draw 26.0% · Club Brugge W 31.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · OH Leuven W 2.07 · Draw 3.40 · Club Brugge W 2.81
- Implied 1X2 · OH Leuven W 42.6% · Draw 26.0% · Club Brugge W 31.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Super League Women — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anderlecht W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Club Brugge W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | OH Leuven W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | RAAL La Louviere W | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Genk W | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 6 | Standard Liege W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Zulte-Waregem W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 8 | Gent W | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OH Leuven W | 3 | 11 | 1 | +10 | 7 |
| 2 | Anderlecht W | 3 | 8 | 0 | +8 | 9 |
| 3 | Club Brugge W | 3 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 9 |
| 4 | RAAL La Louviere W | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 5 | Gent W | 4 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 0 |
| 6 | Genk W | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 4 |
| 7 | Standard Liege W | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 |
| 8 | Zulte-Waregem W | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 |
