AI correctly predicted the Standard Liege W win.
The match finished 3–4, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Standard Liege W Standard Liege W ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-4 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zulte-Waregem W | 34.2% | 40.0% | -5.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 29.3% | +0.3 pp | Aligned |
| Standard Liege W | 36.1% | 30.6% | +5.5 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Zulte-Waregem W's win probability at 40.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 5.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Standard Liege W win 3–4).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Zulte-Waregem W. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Standard Liege W higher (41.9% vs model 36.1%, 5.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Standard Liege W win 3–4).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:57 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Zulte-Waregem W 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Standard Liege W 36.1%
- xG · Zulte-Waregem W 1.28 — Standard Liege W 1.32
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Zulte-Waregem W 2.22 · Draw 3.03 · Standard Liege W 2.90
- Implied 1X2 · Zulte-Waregem W 40.0% · Draw 29.3% · Standard Liege W 30.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Zulte-Waregem W 2.22 · Draw 3.03 · Standard Liege W 2.90
- Implied 1X2 · Zulte-Waregem W 40.0% · Draw 29.3% · Standard Liege W 30.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Standard Liege W win · 3–4
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Super League Women — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anderlecht W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Club Brugge W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | OH Leuven W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | RAAL La Louviere W | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Genk W | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 6 | Standard Liege W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Zulte-Waregem W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 8 | Gent W | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OH Leuven W | 3 | 11 | 1 | +10 | 7 |
| 2 | Anderlecht W | 3 | 8 | 0 | +8 | 9 |
| 3 | Club Brugge W | 3 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 9 |
| 4 | RAAL La Louviere W | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 5 | Gent W | 4 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 0 |
| 6 | Genk W | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 4 |
| 7 | Standard Liege W | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 |
| 8 | Zulte-Waregem W | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 |
