The model missed the final outcome (Carolina Ascent W win 0–1).
The model had projected Lexington W at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Lexington W Carolina Ascent W ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lexington W | 35.6% | 33.1% | +2.6 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 27.9% | +1.7 pp | Aligned |
| Carolina Ascent W | 34.7% | 39.0% | -4.3 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Carolina Ascent W win 0–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Lexington W; match finished Carolina Ascent W
Market lesson
The full-time result was Carolina Ascent W win 0–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Lexington W 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Carolina Ascent W 34.7%
- xG · Lexington W 1.31 — Carolina Ascent W 1.29
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Lexington W 2.74 · Draw 3.23 · Carolina Ascent W 2.32
- Implied 1X2 · Lexington W 33.0% · Draw 28.0% · Carolina Ascent W 39.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Lexington W 2.77 · Draw 3.28 · Carolina Ascent W 2.35
- Implied 1X2 · Lexington W 33.1% · Draw 27.9% · Carolina Ascent W 39.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 11, 2026 · 23:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Carolina Ascent W win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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USL Super League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carolina Ascent W | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 2 | DC Power W | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 3 | Sporting JAX | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 4 | Dallas Trinity W | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Lexington W | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | Tampa Bay Sun W | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 7 | Fort Lauderdale United W | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 8 | Brooklyn W | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carolina Ascent W | 7 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 16 |
| 2 | Sporting JAX | 7 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 11 |
| 3 | DC Power W | 7 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 11 |
| 4 | Dallas Trinity W | 7 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 10 |
| 5 | Lexington W | 5 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 9 |
| 6 | Tampa Bay Sun W | 5 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 8 |
| 7 | Fort Lauderdale United W | 6 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 3 |
| 8 | Brooklyn W | 6 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 3 |
