AI correctly predicted the Sporting JAX win.
The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Sporting JAX Sporting JAX ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 0-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fort Lauderdale United W | 25.0% | 10.6% | +14.4 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 28.7% | 19.0% | +9.8 pp | Model Higher |
| Sporting JAX | 46.3% | 70.4% | -24.1 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Sporting JAX's win probability at 70.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 46.3%, a difference of 24.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Sporting JAX win 0–1).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Sporting JAX attacking xG significantly stronger (1.53 vs 1.07)
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Sporting JAX higher (70.4% vs model 46.3%, 24.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Sporting JAX win 0–1).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Fort Lauderdale United W 24.9% · Draw 28.7% · Sporting JAX 46.3%
- xG · Fort Lauderdale United W 1.07 — Sporting JAX 1.53
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 23:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Fort Lauderdale United W 8.50 · Draw 4.75 · Sporting JAX 1.28
- Implied 1X2 · Fort Lauderdale United W 10.6% · Draw 19.0% · Sporting JAX 70.4%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Fort Lauderdale United W 8.50 · Draw 4.75 · Sporting JAX 1.28
- Implied 1X2 · Fort Lauderdale United W 10.6% · Draw 19.0% · Sporting JAX 70.4%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 23:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Sporting JAX win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (24 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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USL Super League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carolina Ascent W | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 2 | DC Power W | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 3 | Sporting JAX | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 4 | Dallas Trinity W | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Lexington W | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | Tampa Bay Sun W | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 7 | Fort Lauderdale United W | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 8 | Brooklyn W | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carolina Ascent W | 7 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 16 |
| 2 | Sporting JAX | 7 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 11 |
| 3 | DC Power W | 7 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 11 |
| 4 | Dallas Trinity W | 7 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 10 |
| 5 | Lexington W | 5 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 9 |
| 6 | Tampa Bay Sun W | 5 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 8 |
| 7 | Fort Lauderdale United W | 6 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 3 |
| 8 | Brooklyn W | 6 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 3 |
