The model missed the final outcome (Ross County win 0–2).
The model had projected Cove Rangers at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Cove Rangers Ross County ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cove Rangers | 38.0% | 12.9% | +25.1 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.6% | 18.7% | +10.9 pp | Model Edge |
| Ross County | 32.4% | 68.4% | -36.0 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Ross County's win probability at 68.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.4%, a difference of 36.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the result was Ross County win 0–2.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Cove Rangers; match finished Ross County
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Cove Rangers by 36.0 percentage points (74.0% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:58 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Cove Rangers 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Ross County 32.4%
- xG · Cove Rangers 1.36 — Ross County 1.24
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:35 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Cove Rangers 7.11 · Draw 4.90 · Ross County 1.34
- Implied 1X2 · Cove Rangers 12.9% · Draw 18.7% · Ross County 68.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 13:58 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Cove Rangers 7.11 · Draw 4.90 · Ross County 1.34
- Implied 1X2 · Cove Rangers 12.9% · Draw 18.7% · Ross County 68.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Ross County win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (36 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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League One — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ross County | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 19 |
| 2 | Hamilton Academical | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 19 |
| 3 | Montrose | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 4 | East Kilbride | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Alloa Athletic | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Airdrie United | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 7 | East Fife | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 8 | Peterhead | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 9 | Cove Rangers | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 10 | Queen of the South | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ross County | 7 | 22 | 4 | +18 | 19 |
| 2 | Hamilton Academical | 7 | 16 | 1 | +15 | 19 |
| 3 | East Kilbride | 8 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 13 |
| 4 | Montrose | 8 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 15 |
| 5 | Alloa Athletic | 8 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 9 |
| 6 | East Fife | 8 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 8 |
| 7 | Airdrie United | 8 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 9 |
| 8 | Peterhead | 8 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 7 |
| 9 | Queen of the South | 8 | 6 | 24 | -18 | 4 |
| 10 | Cove Rangers | 8 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 5 |
