AI correctly predicted the Raith Rovers win.
The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Raith Rovers Raith Rovers ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raith Rovers | 38.5% | 48.9% | -10.4 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 27.7% | +1.8 pp | Aligned |
| Ayr Utd | 31.9% | 23.4% | +8.6 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Raith Rovers's win probability at 48.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.5%, a difference of 10.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Raith Rovers win 2–0).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Raith Rovers than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Raith Rovers higher (48.9% vs model 38.5%, 10.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Raith Rovers win 2–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 13:55 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Raith Rovers 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Ayr Utd 31.9%
- xG · Raith Rovers 1.37 — Ayr Utd 1.23
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 13:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Raith Rovers 1.94 · Draw 3.42 · Ayr Utd 4.06
- Implied 1X2 · Raith Rovers 48.9% · Draw 27.7% · Ayr Utd 23.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 13:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Raith Rovers 1.94 · Draw 3.42 · Ayr Utd 4.06
- Implied 1X2 · Raith Rovers 48.9% · Draw 27.7% · Ayr Utd 23.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Raith Rovers win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (10 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Championship — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 22 |
| 2 | Raith Rovers | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 3 | Livingston | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | Partick | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 5 | Dunfermline | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Arbroath | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Inverness CT | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Ayr Utd | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 9 | Queen's Park | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 10 | Morton | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 8 | 12 | 2 | +10 | 22 |
| 2 | Livingston | 8 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 13 |
| 3 | Raith Rovers | 8 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 14 |
| 4 | Inverness CT | 8 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 10 |
| 5 | Ayr Utd | 8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 8 |
| 6 | Dunfermline | 7 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 12 |
| 7 | Arbroath | 8 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 11 |
| 8 | Partick | 7 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 12 |
| 9 | Queen's Park | 8 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 |
| 10 | Morton | 8 | 4 | 15 | -11 | 1 |
